So your postion is that in spite of knowing the political trends and the dwindling supply and inevitable changeover where stocks right now in alternatives will be affordable vs worth a lot later on..all these things tell you to hold onto your oil stock?
The presupposition of the question is false.
1. Political trends are irrelevant given the fact that the rest of the world uses, and plan to continue to use Oil. Even if America was stupid enough to mandate an end to oil use, Exxon would still make billions since it has oil fields all over the planet, and sells oil world wide. Even without oil fields, many countries ship oil here to be refined, and we ship the refined products back. This income will not decrease from stupid American policies.
2. I don't see a dwindling supply. Those that claim there is a dwindling supply, only look at production numbers. The US government has cut off exploration and drilling for known supplies of oil, thus production numbers have fallen. That doesn't mean the supply has actually gone down. In fact estimations of oil reserves world wide are higher than ever.
3. One problem with the equation is what happens if the oil supply increases and crude oil prices fall? I have detailed in other posts how several alternative energy companies have their entire future hedged on high oil prices. What happens if prices drop? Answer? They fail, and their stocks will be absolutely worthless.
If you are absolutely certain prices will continue to rise, then you should invest accordingly. I am not so certain. All estimates are that China will require more oil in the future. But what many miss, is that China has invested heavily in oil exploration and drilling.
ANWR is open for drilling finely. Gulf of Mexico is gaining support for drilling, especially since China has a rig already there, and we're the ones that found it. Russia plans to increase oil production by another 7-million daily by 2010. Canada is investing in Shale Oil production. Brazil has the largest fleet of oil rig drilling equipment in the world, and is actively working off it's coast. Saudi Arabia are investing in new oil fields as we speak. Even in the US, one guy in Indiana rented a rig, and drilled a well in his back yard. A truck comes by (if I remember) once a month to fill up and ship to Ohio for refining. Another guy working as a short order cook, sold the little rest stop, bought a drilling rig, and struck oil 57 times. He's now CEO of Youngs Oil Company.
So no... I am not at all convinced that Oil is on it's way out. I think it would be far more risky to invest in alternative energies that will undoubtedly fail if prices fall.
Let me guess, if you were born in the late 1800s, you would've been investing heavily in the horse and buggy when Ford announced it's weird and unweildy "motor carraige".
Let me guess, you would have invested in electric cars that came out shortly there after? Last one hundred years show how well that invest would have paid off.