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Markets today..

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by cashmcall, Mar 22, 2012.

  1. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Latest Goldman Obama scam
    This involves mortgaged backed securities. So in anticipation of QEIII which is coming, get ready for mortgages to be bought by the fed to drive down interest rates and inflate housing. Its coming no doubt about it. Its not speculation. As usual the inside players at Goldamn are fixing the table to sell you mortgage backed securities. They were selected by the Fed... another Obama picking of the winners as to who will engage in these transactions.
    I realize you most day traders are all consumed with Apple and Rim and quite frankly it boggles the mind. The real story is the endless Fed manipulation and insane theories of control that continue to produce unintended consequences.

    They push down the bond yield with no comprehension that businesses have no place in the USA to have insured accounts since FDIC only insures to 250K so the bond market is flooded with corp money.

    Then twist, does exactly the opposite. The bond yields go down then up. All the chatter about how bad bond are hasn't moved them an inch.

    We have a deflating housing market and bernanke thinks this is somehow related to people not spending enough ie obama style. So in order to encourage the public to spend obama style they want everyone increasing credit and debt. WITH NO JOBS! Oh excuse me, obama's got that covered with those high quality solar cell jobs. Him and buffett will sell power for 4X the price of coal or nat gas energy and the gov will fix the solar monopoly so buffett gets 15% on his investment.

    Keep you heads stuffed up obama's utopia but the next fleecing scam is on the way its QEIII mortgage back securities guaranteed to inflate in the face of $6 gas and NO JOBS! This should help the hedge funds that want to buy real estate for ten cents on the dollar and turn the US into a rent rat nation that pays Goldman for the privilege of existence.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/goldman-bets-on-property-rebound-with-new-fund-mortgages.html
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  2. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Despite the increasing chatter of hope for the economy it’s hard to be encouraged if you consider the serious structural issues facing the U.S. and European economies.Everyday now we are told the U.S. employment picture is improving. The media tells us the economy is getting better while the stock market continues to rise. However, beneath the surface the medium and long-term picture for the economy is actually worsening both here and abroad.

    There are some very dangerous signs brewing.. the world economic growth is slowing inflation is up significantly and interest rates are at record lows. Low interest rates spur economic growth but long periods of low rates and money printing almost always results in rapid inflation igniting higher interest rates and eventually slowing the economy. Rapid inflation is now our greatest threat.IMO

    I’ve spend awhile now, coming up with plan to avoid what I am certain will become an economic calamity here at home within the next year – maybe two at the outset.If I’m wrong then people will scoff but so be it. If I’m right they will weather the storm.

    At home, our gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not going to be that robust over the next several years. This is an election year so the age of austerity will be delayed until next year.

    Then it will be severe.IMO

    If you want to get a clear picture of what is ahead for the U.S. you can simply look to Europe. Our nation’s structural problems look the same …And we’re not far behind.

    For the three months ending January of 2012, consumer spending fell flat when compared to 2010 (source: U.S. Commerce Department). That should have been an up-swing period given the period represents the holiday shopping season. Consumer spending was flat because personal income was flat while inflation is lighting up gasoline and food prices. And, in January, inflation-adjusted real disposable personal income actually fell 0.1%.

    Disposable personal income fell two of the last three months. Year-over-year, it was up only a tiny 0.6%.

    But look. Something else is happening – just like in Europe about a year ago.

    For January 2012, the consumer savings rate started to fall from 4.7% from 4.6%.

    So how can our gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth resume here in the U.S. when consumer spending is 70% of GDP and real disposable personal income is falling?It can’t.IMO

    Oil prices are the wild card that eats away at our poor disposable income ability. Don’t get me started on oil price increases. You can feel it at the pump any time you fill your car.

    In February, manufacturing in the U.S. slowed 1.7% from January’s level. New orders for goods to be delivered in the future, fell 2.7% from January.

    There will be no economic growth in the U.S. this year. Any news of such is a Wall Street sucker’s rally with the purpose of bringing investors back into the stock market before stock prices decline again.

    Our biggest fear should be that our policy makers will repeat the mistakes made by their European friends and be unable to stop this before it’s too late.

  3. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    I think it is more than evident that obama is going down. His engagement with the 5th District Court of Appeals was interesting. The Court asked justice to clarify their position that the Court had no right to declare a law unconstitutional. Obama is flailing at the court, flailing at Ryan and is trapped in his hoodie error. So we are seeing mr. bipolar have a meltdown.

    Even today with the markets dropping, I see no indication of any real power in the mess. Gold is down, oil is down and most stocks are down. I don't know what the excuse dejure is but its irrelevant. Bonds are up with no QE.. how absurd, so this is just a low volume push by a handful of hedges. There are a handful of hedges that focus on nothing but QE and they got destroyed last year so they will destroy themselves this year. This is the year of careful stock picking.

    I am absolutely certain that the market is digesting the obamacare killing and the fact that Obama is in trouble early in this election cycle and Romney, has essentially escaped any major problems. Obama makes plenty of gaffs but the media doesn't pick up on it. But yesterday Obama lectured the media on how to report his policies. So he is getting worried in a Nixon narcissistic way. You can call Romney anything you like but he is not mentally ill. He is well adjusted and even though he has been characterized as "cold", compared to obama the reptile, Romeny is a teddy bear.

    As long as Romney doesn't pick somebody like jeb bush, palin, or a dan quayle, or somebody that needs to be vetted and the press can tear apart then he will do OK. He has to pic somebody that can carry the South specifically Florida. Rubio is the man. That would galvanize the conservative vote and the thinking hard working hispanic population v. the lazy mex illegal handout strain. Being a Veep will get Rubio the executive experience he would need to run for President. That is the ticket and Rubio's indicating no would defy the interests of the party at a crucial time. That would set up Rubio for his eventual turn. Conservatives will not embrace rubio if he lets obama get another term. Rubio can wait his time and that's the republican system.

    Romney Rubio is a slam dunk.
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  4. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    obama the reptile... love it, cracked me up
  5. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    I most certainly remember how hard the hedge funds broke the market in August prior to the Tepper trade. The market has that frustrated feel to it but unlike August, it is now practically void of volume so hedge funds are just shooting at each other. Unlike August, I don't see a lot of over-extension of margin. Further, I have see a lot less computer driven trading perhaps because the SEC has warned the exchanges and will hold them liable.

    I am seeing big drops off in oil services related to the NG contango, but its is only affecting land based operations not the deep sea drilling which is oil.

    So could the hedges keep pounding away at each other. Sure but long run that is suicide through redemptions and I don't think hedges want a repeat of 2011. This move at this time has been really stupid. As I have said, I would guess hundreds of thousands of small investors have decided not to open Roths by April 15th and many won't fund them out of fear. So these funds that operate are run by morons.

    I know a number of investors buying property for cash. They can buy houses around here for less than cost and rent them out. Hedges are idiots to be sure. But a lot of them are foreign, like the russian firms attacking european banks. The SEC is so lax that we have to deal with them here too from time to time.

    The ECB is definitely going to have to loan money to the Spanish and Italian banks, they should have dropped interest rates but once again Germany is the hardline so this is more politics that ends up somehow connecting the US economy even though US banks have nil exposure to european debt.

    Bernanke is extremely unhappy with congress, specifically the democrats and obama for doing nothing to reign in the gov spending and the debt. Bernanke can no more explain this to Sir Chump than he could explain a calculus equation. Obama has the attention span of a gnat. So Bernanke can basically let the economy cave or he can keep bailing out obama who just makes it more difficult on bernanke.

    As long as this debt is not reigned in, QE will be necessary short term or the whole economy goes the way of Japan and into 25 years of recession and high unemployment and declining property values.
    Obama doesn't care he is only interested in the election and drumming up shufflefoot support. Bernanke buy himself cannot save the economy from a big 2013 recession. That equation is a near certainly due to egregious public policy, so its hard to say what Bernanke should do. If he does nothing markets erodes and the unemployment goes up and housings stalls again and sucks down all the new capital poured into it. Its ugly. Obama doesn't care. I truly believe he is attempting to destroy wealth in America. Hes a disaster so Bernanke has a tough job. Obama has met with his so-called economic team just once in two years and none of those people are still there. So he's winging it and it shows.
  6. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    What makes you think Bernanke is upset with BO and the Dems? I see no evidence of this.

    If he is really upset with them, all he needs do is rise interest rates and the economy will tank big time thus assuring BO and the Ds lose in November.
  7. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    I call them as I see them my friend..everything I post on this thread has to do with the markets...
  8. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Interesting day. Very nice broad rally and its sticking. QE is on the way as you can see. Bernanke is not going to let euphoria get detrailed. He can't. Without the wealth effect causing people to spend money there can be no recovery especially with gasoline prices and energy prices rising.

    Only about 10% of the hedge money is always pushing the short side aggressively but it is in the best interests of the Hedges to allow markets to lose volatility and float higher for a while. They must create the illusion that markets are safer so the bond money will start to float into equities.

    This by the way is a perfect example of governing dynamic equilibrium. What is best for all hedge
    funds
    is not to compete so hard against each other or pretty soon as they have done, they will be alone trading against themselves. That causes volatility, redemptions and reduced profits or increased losses.

    This most recent push down has been very stupid and triggered a quick economic contraction. With gas prices this high, the economy is already under contraction pressure. Americans are tired of the recession, they want things to simmer down and improve even if it is only incremental.

    There is some reason to believe that housing has nearly bottomed. The foreclosures while still stalled, are moving rapidly once they come to market and in many regions, there has even been a slight firming of prices. It is like tending to seedlings, the markets have to allow things to pickup without steering the fatigued and scared money back into
    bonds
    . In the last two weeks with all the economic fear mongering, bonds loaded up again. Very stupid indeed.

    I would like to see us close today over 13K in the dow. I think that is overly optimistic but it needs to get back over 13k. Still plenty of small traders selling into the rally and that might subside in a few hours. Hard to say.
  9. BigRob

    BigRob Moderator Staff Member

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    I had a 5.9% gain in my short term (day to day) trading account today -- can't complain about that.
  10. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    I can't complain with the gains I have incurred in the stock market either. However I think we are in for a big crash. I tend to think Harry Dent has the market predicted in his book "The Great Crash Ahead." He and others think the crash could happen this year. So, I intend to ride the market till maybe mid-summer then get out altogether.
  11. BigRob

    BigRob Moderator Staff Member

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    Didn't do so well today -- lost 0.4%.
  12. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Today we went back a bit and it started right out the gate. What happens is there are about 10% of the hedge funds
    that persist in trying to read the Fed's intentions from moment to moment. So if you get bernanke on the market goes up if you get one of the QE hawks the market gets attacked. it is done in concert.

    They have the usual suspects but this never amounts to much mainly because there are n0 traders
    . So its just a game and a stupid game at that.
    Shorts came in at the end of the day so they are now set up for a thrashing as if they didn't get enough in the last two days.
    You could think of this as a reverse bear markets
    for short sellers. 90% of the hedge players are long, so the shorts are compounding a lot of risk.

    Today was the 13th so many traders stayed home. They are always low volume and mostly always down days.

    Rob,,this is always a bad day...
  13. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Did you guy's know that using interest free Fed Money and lots of leverage Morgan assets
    have come up from 70 billion in 2008 to 380 billion today. That is more than shocking especially in light of the so called "banking" crisis when the stock market pundants and hedges were killing the banks last year. Once they chopped them down, hedges bought them and all along these mammoth asset leverage trades were being developed in the gray zones where their value was not really transparent. But as you can see, this is more than shocking and now you know why goldman and morgan became banks so they could feed off the fed. It is as if the entire vortex of the market have been channeled into the blood funnels of morgan and goldman. This represents huge risk to the global markets. Imagine for a minute that both Godamn and morgan got into trouble in the same leveraged asset class at the same moment and had to suddenly clear 80 billion apiece into the global markets. The thought is beyond any comprehension because at the focal point of the leveraged investments are magnitudes that could sprawl into the trillions.

    This isn't lending by the way. These are huge bets in the oil contracts for example where morgan and goldman have become the largest buyers of oil contracts in the world, larger by far than all the opec nations combined and exxon and the producers combined. And you wonder why Brent stays over 120 and it makes you wonder how any company could grow assets in a recession up 500% in under 4 years and go virtually unnoticed until now.WOW
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  14. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    What happened to BO's pledge to the end 'too big to fail?' Oh well, caulk it up as just another lie.


  15. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    He got Dodd-Frank instead. Doesn't really do anything other than add annoyance but the average BO voter doesn't know any different. Now why you would want a bill on financial markets from two guys who were clueless as to the state of the markets they led the Congressional oversight of ? Obviously they just let their cronies/donors patch up some general nonsense that would sound nice but impact nothing.

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