Markets today..

Yahoo Finance has an article yesterday saying that mom and pop aren't taking the bait to pile in now in spite of all the thugs urging them to do so. They cite fund outflows are still high. They're pointing to HFT's as being the reason for the march higher.

I think a good deal of distrust is warranted. Biggs for example was 90% in late Dec and so was Goldman. The run up has been mostly propaganda with nothing concrete to support it.

I agree with you on the pension funds. They are onerous indeed.

The media is a hedge fund shill; the hedges pay the bills and write the articles. It is interesting that the articles so tightly conform.

We have for example articles:
1) saying fixed income is dead the message is more risk
2) bonds are terrible
3) vix is calm so the sky's the limit
4) Barton Biggs is 90% invested as is Goldman... why they said so
5) Merrideth Whitney is wrong on municipal bankruptcies.
6) Banks are rock solid
7) housing is great
8) gold is dead
9) oil will go to $200
10) China slowing, stalling, etc so the USA is it again! yahoo!


Meanwhile we have

1) 16 trillion in deb
2) 189 trillion in unfunded mandates
3) taxhappy in the white house that wants to raise capital gains to 35%! and Div to 35% [that will end fixed income entirely
4) housing starts were down
5) oil up
6) consumer sentiment falling
7) high unemployment and faked numbers
8) gas going through the roof
9) gov wages up private sector down again
10) energy cost for electricity skyrocketing due to sambo policies
and anti coal and anti-nat gas
11) many babyboomers life savings destroyed and on Soc Sec
12) more foreclosures following sambo bank sweetheart deal
13)rise of gov unions. Rise in size of gov and gov overhead no reduction at all


The only ones left in the markets are hedge funds, mutual fund morons, pension funds, some jerked off flippers who are meaningless, a few big individual investors, and some very cautious traders.

I'd say following the hedge funds in with full exposure is suicide. I know and the hedge fund know that April is always down due to taxes. This year will be lighter than most due to the heavy market losses last year when hedge funds and mutual funds were tearing the place apart. So we may have seem most of the yearly rally to date.

So go away in April may be a good strategy instead of waiting until May.

This is a propaganda driven market, fundamentally nothing has changed to warrant the euphoria and the complacency with debt strikes me as uberdangerous. We have inflation now and this is showing up in wage inflation especially with Gov employees So this is very unstable.

And remember, Cash is always good no matter what market exists. There is no market where i would ever be in 90%.

I think the damage to citizens that saved and expected their homes to deliver retirement is so great that they have all virtually been turned into wards of the state. Housing is still sinking and I see no end in sight. Property Taxes are a huge part of the problem and are used to fund pensions, just like GM. They have written the pension shortfalls into the law for taxpayers to absorb them.

Odd day today. They are slamming oil services again and oil related stocks, so what you are seeing is the old hedge fund sector swapping. The markets are probably up from short clearing of the indexes. There is nothing running the table today and there is some real froth in the market. My gut says we are getting near the end of this rally and are due for a pretty good short term correction.

Look at the vix etfs today, the chaos continues.

The entire market feels congested.

Overall today was a pretty good bottom fishing day. Actually a great day in disguise. Tankers were roaring and and nice lift at days end. But the big news is Obamacare all but sunk. I would think the markets would be euphoric especially businesses and I am sure they don't want to show that much euphoria but trust me they will feel it soon. Some of the reason is that they don't understand the legal arguments but it is safe to say that obamacare's adventure in a court was as one announcer put it a Train wreck and maybe even a plane wreck.

What was reckless was the way Kagen and the wise latina behaved. The court is about arguments not about partisan chit chat. Legal arguments follow a very tight leash based on the reasoning of the earlier decisions. They don't wander off into fantasy. So the new justices it is safe to say are not the Caliber of a Sandra Day O'connor and it unfortunately showed. The time will come when they have to write descents and they can make fools out of themselves for the legal historian.

In law, strong legal reasoning is treasured no matter what the political bent. It it makes sense it is upheld and discussed. If not, then it undergoes years of criticism. Obamacare was a disaster. It was garbage law enacted by one political team with total disregard even to moderate voices of the other team. It was a ramrod that took no prisoners. Even when most of the congressman who voted for it were blasted out of office democrats continued to infuriate the public with their insane delusion that they could tell the American people that the Gov was so strong it could do whatever it wanted period in the name of commerce control. It could force you to buy a phone, eat broccoli, or anything else it wanted and you would be fined by IRS if you didn't do what they said. That was a stroke to far for the people and the Courts appear to have put an end to this with some prejudice.

We have to wait for the opinion but after today, it is looking more like a clean sweep to remove this awful stretch of Gov police power upon citizens. So obama's so called signature achievement, will be found unconstitutional. The Constitution will save us from liberal demigods that want to enslave us all. It is a good day.

Overall today was a pretty good bottom fishing day. Actually a great day in disguise. Tankers were roaring and and nice lift at days end. But the big news is Obamacare all but sunk. I would think the markets would be euphoric especially businesses and I am sure they don't want to show that much euphoria but trust me they will feel it soon. Some of the reason is that they don't understand the legal arguments but it is safe to say that obamacare's adventure in a court was as one announcer put it a Train wreck and maybe even a plane wreck.

What was reckless was the way Kagen and the wise latina behaved. The court is about arguments not about partisan chit chat. Legal arguments follow a very tight leash based on the reasoning of the earlier decisions. They don't wander off into fantasy. So the new justices it is safe to say are not the Caliber of a Sandra Day O'connor and it unfortunately showed. The time will come when they have to write descents and they can make fools out of themselves for the legal historian.

In law, strong legal reasoning is treasured no matter what the political bent. It it makes sense it is upheld and discussed. If not, then it undergoes years of criticism. Obamacare was a disaster. It was garbage law enacted by one political team with total disregard even to moderate voices of the other team. It was a ramrod that took no prisoners. Even when most of the congressman who voted for it were blasted out of office democrats continued to infuriate the public with their insane delusion that they could tell the American people that the Gov was so strong it could do whatever it wanted period in the name of commerce control. It could force you to buy a phone, eat broccoli, or anything else it wanted and you would be fined by IRS if you didn't do what they said. That was a stroke to far for the people and the Courts appear to have put an end to this with some prejudice.

We have to wait for the opinion but after today, it is looking more like a clean sweep to remove this awful stretch of Gov police power upon citizens. So obama's so called signature achievement, will be found unconstitutional. The Constitution will save us from liberal demigods that want to enslave us all. It is a good day.

We can only hope Obamacare is sunk. That would be wonderful for all Americans.

Regarding the markets, I think it is all bogus bull shit...similar to professional wrestling. The Fed is printing money overtime, the government is deficit spending overtime, and Europe is on the precipice of disaster. Thanks to the fools at the Fed, when the Euros go down they will take us with them. I suspect it is only a matter of time before a sudden big event sends us over the edge.

The coming Great Depression II will be much worse than the last one. This is due to the fact that we are not economically strong, running huge trade deficits, and personal debt is very high. All things not found in the 1929.

I'm a VALUE invester..because value never goes out of style..

How do you value invest when it is possible the stock market is entirely over valued? By this I mean, should the market crash entirely, which many experts predict will occur soon, there can't be value in the stock market. The only value investing might be investing in gold and silver.

How much has all the money printing devalued the dollar? I heard that they have increased the money supply by 300%. Is that right? Do you see a crash happening gradually or will it be one big sudden crash?

How does one protect themselves? Investing in material things to barter? What about food?

Don't get me started on Gold...

Everyday now we are told the U.S. employment picture is improving. The media tells us the economy is getting better while the stock market continues to rise. However, beneath the surface the medium and long-term picture for the economy is actually worsening both here and abroad.

There are some very dangerous signs brewing: the world economic growth is slowing, inflation is up significantly, and interest rates are at record lows. Low interest rates spur economic growth but long periods of low rates and money printing almost always results in rapid inflation igniting higher interest rates and eventually slowing the economy. Rapid inflation is now our greatest threat.

I’ve spend the last four weeks, heads down, making a personal plan to avoid what I am certain will become an economic calamity here at home within the next year – maybe two at the outset. But like Noah, I still have some remaining preparations for my Ark – so to speak. If I’m wrong then people will scoff – but so be it. If I’m right, I’ll weather the storm.
At home, our gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not going to be that robust over the next several years. This is an election year so the age of austerity will be delayed until next year.Then IMO it might will be severe!

If you want to get a clear picture of what is ahead for the U.S. you can simply look to Europe. Our nation’s structural problems mirror what is to be.
Greece officially defaulted on its debt. Finally. It is unlikely that their creditors (which are mainly large European banks) will see more than 10% of the money loaned to Greece. Pick up any newspaper and you’ll see the horrible depression the country is in. Greece’s unemployment rate continues to rise, hitting a high of 20% already. Children are becoming orphans because their parents can no longer support them.

Spain refuses to agree with austerity budget targets set by the European Central Bank. Unemployment rates are now 23%. Italy’s unemployment rate sits at an 11-year high of 9.2%. Both Ireland and Portugal’s unemployment rates climb ever higher with both reaching 14.4%.

Voters in Ireland will be going to the polls to decide if they are going to accept austerity measures. How do you think they will decide?

Look at the numbers below. These are the youth unemployment rates (ages 16-24) across the European Union as of January 2012:

Greece: 51.1%
Spain: 49.9%
Portugal: 35.1%
Italy: 31.1%
Ireland: 29.6%

The European Union is headed for a deep recession because their underlying structure that can no longer support economic prosperity.

And, we’re not far behind.
For the three months ending January of 2012, consumer spending fell flat when compared to 2010 (source: U.S. Commerce Department). That should have been an up-swing period given the period represents the holiday shopping season. Consumer spending was flat because personal income was flat while inflation is lighting up gasoline and food prices. And, in January, inflation-adjusted real disposable personal income actually fell 0.1%.

Disposable personal income fell two of the last three months. Year-over-year, it was up only a tiny 0.6%.

But look. Something else is happening – just like in Europe about a year ago.
For January 2012, the consumer savings rate started to fall from 4.7% from 4.6%.

So how can our gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth resume here in the U.S. when consumer spending is 70% of GDP and real disposable personal income is falling?

It can’t.
Oil prices are the wild card that eats away at our dismal disposable income ability. Don’t get me started on oil price increases. You can feel it at the pump any time you fill your car.

In February, manufacturing in the U.S. slowed 1.7% from January’s level. New orders for goods to be delivered in the future, fell 2.7% from January.

There will be no economic growth in the U.S. this year. Any news of such is a Wall Street sucker’s rally with the purpose of bringing investors back into the stock market before stock prices decline again. Our biggest fear should be that our policy makers will repeat the mistakes made by their European counterparts and be unable to stop this demise before it’s too late.

Not bad..but the markets still have a few value stocks..

If we've printed a lot of money and devalued the dollar, isn't that a type of masked inflation? And doesn't the Feds have to adventually pull those dollars back in and dispose of them?

I don't think there is any question about it. We are headed for a big crash, which could be much worse than the Great Depression. And why? Who is to blame? Of course that is easy to answer. The fault lies entirely with liberals and progressives who have promoted and instituted economic policies which have destroyed our economy and these same fools refuse even now, to fix the problem.....hence BO's delusional budget.

I am getting into gold and silver as a hedge in the event of total collapse.

Remember, BO and Dipshit Biden considered a bank holiday in 2009. This means the government closing the banks as was done in the 1930s. There could be runs on banks as people fear they can't get to their money....even though the value of that money is being degraded steadily by the Fed with it's printing press. http://investmentwatchblog.com/biden-we-considered-declaring-a-bank-holiday-2009/#.T3Wc-zEW0ms

What is the number one hedge against inflation and economic chaos? Gold and silver.

Latest Goldman Obama scam
This involves mortgaged backed securities. So in anticipation of QEIII which is coming, get ready for mortgages to be bought by the fed to drive down interest rates and inflate housing. Its coming no doubt about it. Its not speculation. As usual the inside players at Goldamn are fixing the table to sell you mortgage backed securities. They were selected by the Fed... another Obama picking of the winners as to who will engage in these transactions.
I realize you most day traders are all consumed with Apple and Rim and quite frankly it boggles the mind. The real story is the endless Fed manipulation and insane theories of control that continue to produce unintended consequences.

They push down the bond yield with no comprehension that businesses have no place in the USA to have insured accounts since FDIC only insures to 250K so the bond market is flooded with corp money.

Then twist, does exactly the opposite. The bond yields go down then up. All the chatter about how bad bond are hasn't moved them an inch.

We have a deflating housing market and bernanke thinks this is somehow related to people not spending enough ie obama style. So in order to encourage the public to spend obama style they want everyone increasing credit and debt. WITH NO JOBS! Oh excuse me, obama's got that covered with those high quality solar cell jobs. Him and buffett will sell power for 4X the price of coal or nat gas energy and the gov will fix the solar monopoly so buffett gets 15% on his investment.

Keep you heads stuffed up obama's utopia but the next fleecing scam is on the way its QEIII mortgage back securities guaranteed to inflate in the face of $6 gas and NO JOBS! This should help the hedge funds that want to buy real estate for ten cents on the dollar and turn the US into a rent rat nation that pays Goldman for the privilege of existence.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/goldman-bets-on-property-rebound-with-new-fund-mortgages.html

Despite the increasing chatter of hope for the economy it’s hard to be encouraged if you consider the serious structural issues facing the U.S. and European economies.Everyday now we are told the U.S. employment picture is improving. The media tells us the economy is getting better while the stock market continues to rise. However, beneath the surface the medium and long-term picture for the economy is actually worsening both here and abroad.

There are some very dangerous signs brewing.. the world economic growth is slowing inflation is up significantly and interest rates are at record lows. Low interest rates spur economic growth but long periods of low rates and money printing almost always results in rapid inflation igniting higher interest rates and eventually slowing the economy. Rapid inflation is now our greatest threat.IMO

I’ve spend awhile now, coming up with plan to avoid what I am certain will become an economic calamity here at home within the next year – maybe two at the outset.If I’m wrong then people will scoff but so be it. If I’m right they will weather the storm.

At home, our gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not going to be that robust over the next several years. This is an election year so the age of austerity will be delayed until next year.

Then it will be severe.IMO

If you want to get a clear picture of what is ahead for the U.S. you can simply look to Europe. Our nation’s structural problems look the same …And we’re not far behind.

For the three months ending January of 2012, consumer spending fell flat when compared to 2010 (source: U.S. Commerce Department). That should have been an up-swing period given the period represents the holiday shopping season. Consumer spending was flat because personal income was flat while inflation is lighting up gasoline and food prices. And, in January, inflation-adjusted real disposable personal income actually fell 0.1%.

Disposable personal income fell two of the last three months. Year-over-year, it was up only a tiny 0.6%.

But look. Something else is happening – just like in Europe about a year ago.

For January 2012, the consumer savings rate started to fall from 4.7% from 4.6%.

So how can our gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth resume here in the U.S. when consumer spending is 70% of GDP and real disposable personal income is falling?It can’t.IMO

Oil prices are the wild card that eats away at our poor disposable income ability. Don’t get me started on oil price increases. You can feel it at the pump any time you fill your car.

In February, manufacturing in the U.S. slowed 1.7% from January’s level. New orders for goods to be delivered in the future, fell 2.7% from January.

There will be no economic growth in the U.S. this year. Any news of such is a Wall Street sucker’s rally with the purpose of bringing investors back into the stock market before stock prices decline again.

Our biggest fear should be that our policy makers will repeat the mistakes made by their European friends and be unable to stop this before it’s too late.

I think it is more than evident that obama is going down. His engagement with the 5th District Court of Appeals was interesting. The Court asked justice to clarify their position that the Court had no right to declare a law unconstitutional. Obama is flailing at the court, flailing at Ryan and is trapped in his hoodie error. So we are seeing mr. bipolar have a meltdown.

Even today with the markets dropping, I see no indication of any real power in the mess. Gold is down, oil is down and most stocks are down. I don't know what the excuse dejure is but its irrelevant. Bonds are up with no QE.. how absurd, so this is just a low volume push by a handful of hedges. There are a handful of hedges that focus on nothing but QE and they got destroyed last year so they will destroy themselves this year. This is the year of careful stock picking.

I am absolutely certain that the market is digesting the obamacare killing and the fact that Obama is in trouble early in this election cycle and Romney, has essentially escaped any major problems. Obama makes plenty of gaffs but the media doesn't pick up on it. But yesterday Obama lectured the media on how to report his policies. So he is getting worried in a Nixon narcissistic way. You can call Romney anything you like but he is not mentally ill. He is well adjusted and even though he has been characterized as "cold", compared to obama the reptile, Romeny is a teddy bear.

As long as Romney doesn't pick somebody like jeb bush, palin, or a dan quayle, or somebody that needs to be vetted and the press can tear apart then he will do OK. He has to pic somebody that can carry the South specifically Florida. Rubio is the man. That would galvanize the conservative vote and the thinking hard working hispanic population v. the lazy mex illegal handout strain. Being a Veep will get Rubio the executive experience he would need to run for President. That is the ticket and Rubio's indicating no would defy the interests of the party at a crucial time. That would set up Rubio for his eventual turn. Conservatives will not embrace rubio if he lets obama get another term. Rubio can wait his time and that's the republican system.

Romney Rubio is a slam dunk.

I most certainly remember how hard the hedge funds broke the market in August prior to the Tepper trade. The market has that frustrated feel to it but unlike August, it is now practically void of volume so hedge funds are just shooting at each other. Unlike August, I don't see a lot of over-extension of margin. Further, I have see a lot less computer driven trading perhaps because the SEC has warned the exchanges and will hold them liable.

I am seeing big drops off in oil services related to the NG contango, but its is only affecting land based operations not the deep sea drilling which is oil.

So could the hedges keep pounding away at each other. Sure but long run that is suicide through redemptions and I don't think hedges want a repeat of 2011. This move at this time has been really stupid. As I have said, I would guess hundreds of thousands of small investors have decided not to open Roths by April 15th and many won't fund them out of fear. So these funds that operate are run by morons.

I know a number of investors buying property for cash. They can buy houses around here for less than cost and rent them out. Hedges are idiots to be sure. But a lot of them are foreign, like the russian firms attacking european banks. The SEC is so lax that we have to deal with them here too from time to time.

The ECB is definitely going to have to loan money to the Spanish and Italian banks, they should have dropped interest rates but once again Germany is the hardline so this is more politics that ends up somehow connecting the US economy even though US banks have nil exposure to european debt.

Bernanke is extremely unhappy with congress, specifically the democrats and obama for doing nothing to reign in the gov spending and the debt. Bernanke can no more explain this to Sir Chump than he could explain a calculus equation. Obama has the attention span of a gnat. So Bernanke can basically let the economy cave or he can keep bailing out obama who just makes it more difficult on bernanke.

As long as this debt is not reigned in, QE will be necessary short term or the whole economy goes the way of Japan and into 25 years of recession and high unemployment and declining property values.

Obama doesn't care he is only interested in the election and drumming up shufflefoot support. Bernanke buy himself cannot save the economy from a big 2013 recession. That equation is a near certainly due to egregious public policy, so its hard to say what Bernanke should do. If he does nothing markets erodes and the unemployment goes up and housings stalls again and sucks down all the new capital poured into it. Its ugly. Obama doesn't care. I truly believe he is attempting to destroy wealth in America. Hes a disaster so Bernanke has a tough job. Obama has met with his so-called economic team just once in two years and none of those people are still there. So he's winging it and it shows.