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Markets today..

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by cashmcall, Mar 22, 2012.

  1. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Yahoo Finance has an article yesterday saying that mom and pop aren't taking the bait to pile in now in spite of all the thugs urging them to do so. They cite fund outflows are still high. They're pointing to HFT's as being the reason for the march higher.

    I think a good deal of distrust is warranted. Biggs for example was 90% in late Dec and so was Goldman. The run up has been mostly propaganda with nothing concrete to support it.

    I agree with you on the pension funds. They are onerous indeed.

    The media is a hedge fund shill; the hedges pay the bills and write the articles. It is interesting that the articles so tightly conform.

    We have for example articles:
    1) saying fixed income is dead the message is more risk
    2) bonds are terrible
    3) vix is calm so the sky's the limit
    4) Barton Biggs is 90% invested as is Goldman... why they said so
    5) Merrideth Whitney is wrong on municipal bankruptcies.
    6) Banks are rock solid
    7) housing is great
    8) gold is dead
    9) oil will go to $200
    10) China slowing, stalling, etc so the USA is it again! yahoo!


    Meanwhile we have

    1) 16 trillion in deb
    2) 189 trillion in unfunded mandates
    3) taxhappy in the white house that wants to raise capital gains to 35%! and Div to 35% [that will end fixed income entirely
    4) housing starts were down
    5) oil up
    6) consumer sentiment falling
    7) high unemployment and faked numbers
    8) gas going through the roof
    9) gov wages up private sector down again
    10) energy cost for electricity skyrocketing due to sambo policies
    and anti coal and anti-nat gas
    11) many babyboomers life savings destroyed and on Soc Sec
    12) more foreclosures following sambo bank sweetheart deal
    13)rise of gov unions. Rise in size of gov and gov overhead no reduction at all


    The only ones left in the markets are hedge funds, mutual fund morons, pension funds, some jerked off flippers who are meaningless, a few big individual investors, and some very cautious traders.

    I'd say following the hedge funds in with full exposure is suicide. I know and the hedge fund know that April is always down due to taxes. This year will be lighter than most due to the heavy market losses last year when hedge funds and mutual funds were tearing the place apart. So we may have seem most of the yearly rally to date.

    So go away in April may be a good strategy instead of waiting until May.

    This is a propaganda driven market, fundamentally nothing has changed to warrant the euphoria and the complacency with debt strikes me as uberdangerous. We have inflation now and this is showing up in wage inflation especially with Gov employees So this is very unstable.

    And remember, Cash is always good no matter what market exists. There is no market where i would ever be in 90%.

    I think the damage to citizens that saved and expected their homes to deliver retirement is so great that they have all virtually been turned into wards of the state. Housing is still sinking and I see no end in sight. Property Taxes are a huge part of the problem and are used to fund pensions, just like GM. They have written the pension shortfalls into the law for taxpayers to absorb them.
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  2. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Odd day today. They are slamming oil services again and oil related stocks, so what you are seeing is the old hedge fund sector swapping. The markets are probably up from short clearing of the indexes. There is nothing running the table today and there is some real froth in the market. My gut says we are getting near the end of this rally and are due for a pretty good short term correction.

    Look at the vix etfs today, the chaos continues.

    The entire market feels congested.
  3. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Overall today was a pretty good bottom fishing day. Actually a great day in disguise. Tankers were roaring and and nice lift at days end. But the big news is Obamacare all but sunk. I would think the markets would be euphoric especially businesses and I am sure they don't want to show that much euphoria but trust me they will feel it soon. Some of the reason is that they don't understand the legal arguments but it is safe to say that obamacare's adventure in a court was as one announcer put it a Train wreck and maybe even a plane wreck.

    What was reckless was the way Kagen and the wise latina behaved. The court is about arguments not about partisan chit chat. Legal arguments follow a very tight leash based on the reasoning of the earlier decisions. They don't wander off into fantasy. So the new justices it is safe to say are not the Caliber of a Sandra Day O'connor and it unfortunately showed. The time will come when they have to write descents and they can make fools out of themselves for the legal historian.

    In law, strong legal reasoning is treasured no matter what the political bent. It it makes sense it is upheld and discussed. If not, then it undergoes years of criticism. Obamacare was a disaster. It was garbage law enacted by one political team with total disregard even to moderate voices of the other team. It was a ramrod that took no prisoners. Even when most of the congressman who voted for it were blasted out of office democrats continued to infuriate the public with their insane delusion that they could tell the American people that the Gov was so strong it could do whatever it wanted period in the name of commerce control. It could force you to buy a phone, eat broccoli, or anything else it wanted and you would be fined by IRS if you didn't do what they said. That was a stroke to far for the people and the Courts appear to have put an end to this with some prejudice.

    We have to wait for the opinion but after today, it is looking more like a clean sweep to remove this awful stretch of Gov police power upon citizens. So obama's so called signature achievement, will be found unconstitutional. The Constitution will save us from liberal demigods that want to enslave us all. It is a good day.
  4. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Overall today was a pretty good bottom fishing day. Actually a great day in disguise. Tankers were roaring and and nice lift at days end. But the big news is Obamacare all but sunk. I would think the markets would be euphoric especially businesses and I am sure they don't want to show that much euphoria but trust me they will feel it soon. Some of the reason is that they don't understand the legal arguments but it is safe to say that obamacare's adventure in a court was as one announcer put it a Train wreck and maybe even a plane wreck.

    What was reckless was the way Kagen and the wise latina behaved. The court is about arguments not about partisan chit chat. Legal arguments follow a very tight leash based on the reasoning of the earlier decisions. They don't wander off into fantasy. So the new justices it is safe to say are not the Caliber of a Sandra Day O'connor and it unfortunately showed. The time will come when they have to write descents and they can make fools out of themselves for the legal historian.

    In law, strong legal reasoning is treasured no matter what the political bent. It it makes sense it is upheld and discussed. If not, then it undergoes years of criticism. Obamacare was a disaster. It was garbage law enacted by one political team with total disregard even to moderate voices of the other team. It was a ramrod that took no prisoners. Even when most of the congressman who voted for it were blasted out of office democrats continued to infuriate the public with their insane delusion that they could tell the American people that the Gov was so strong it could do whatever it wanted period in the name of commerce control. It could force you to buy a phone, eat broccoli, or anything else it wanted and you would be fined by IRS if you didn't do what they said. That was a stroke to far for the people and the Courts appear to have put an end to this with some prejudice.

    We have to wait for the opinion but after today, it is looking more like a clean sweep to remove this awful stretch of Gov police power upon citizens. So obama's so called signature achievement, will be found unconstitutional. The Constitution will save us from liberal demigods that want to enslave us all. It is a good day.
  5. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    We can only hope Obamacare is sunk. That would be wonderful for all Americans.

    Regarding the markets, I think it is all bogus bull shit...similar to professional wrestling. The Fed is printing money overtime, the government is deficit spending overtime, and Europe is on the precipice of disaster. Thanks to the fools at the Fed, when the Euros go down they will take us with them. I suspect it is only a matter of time before a sudden big event sends us over the edge.

    The coming Great Depression II will be much worse than the last one. This is due to the fact that we are not economically strong, running huge trade deficits, and personal debt is very high. All things not found in the 1929.
  6. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    I'm a VALUE invester..because value never goes out of style..
  7. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    How do you value invest when it is possible the stock market is entirely over valued? By this I mean, should the market crash entirely, which many experts predict will occur soon, there can't be value in the stock market. The only value investing might be investing in gold and silver.
  8. Cruella

    Cruella Well-Known Member

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    How much has all the money printing devalued the dollar? I heard that they have increased the money supply by 300%. Is that right? Do you see a crash happening gradually or will it be one big sudden crash?

    How does one protect themselves? Investing in material things to barter? What about food?
  9. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    put it all in beef jerky, twinkies and spam. lasts forever.
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  10. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Don't get me started on Gold...
  11. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Everyday now we are told the U.S. employment picture is improving. The media tells us the economy is getting better while the stock market continues to rise. However, beneath the surface the medium and long-term picture for the economy is actually worsening both here and abroad.

    There are some very dangerous signs brewing: the world economic growth is slowing, inflation is up significantly, and interest rates are at record lows. Low interest rates spur economic growth but long periods of low rates and money printing almost always results in rapid inflation igniting higher interest rates and eventually slowing the economy. Rapid inflation is now our greatest threat.

    I’ve spend the last four weeks, heads down, making a personal plan to avoid what I am certain will become an economic calamity here at home within the next year – maybe two at the outset. But like Noah, I still have some remaining preparations for my Ark – so to speak. If I’m wrong then people will scoff – but so be it. If I’m right, I’ll weather the storm.
    At home, our gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not going to be that robust over the next several years. This is an election year so the age of austerity will be delayed until next year.Then IMO it might will be severe!

    If you want to get a clear picture of what is ahead for the U.S. you can simply look to Europe. Our nation’s structural problems mirror what is to be.
    Greece officially defaulted on its debt. Finally. It is unlikely that their creditors (which are mainly large European banks) will see more than 10% of the money loaned to Greece. Pick up any newspaper and you’ll see the horrible depression the country is in. Greece’s unemployment rate continues to rise, hitting a high of 20% already. Children are becoming orphans because their parents can no longer support them.

    Spain refuses to agree with austerity budget targets set by the European Central Bank. Unemployment rates are now 23%. Italy’s unemployment rate sits at an 11-year high of 9.2%. Both Ireland and Portugal’s unemployment rates climb ever higher with both reaching 14.4%.

    Voters in Ireland will be going to the polls to decide if they are going to accept austerity measures. How do you think they will decide?

    Look at the numbers below. These are the youth unemployment rates (ages 16-24) across the European Union as of January 2012:

    Greece: 51.1%
    Spain: 49.9%
    Portugal: 35.1%
    Italy: 31.1%
    Ireland: 29.6%

    The European Union is headed for a deep recession because their underlying structure that can no longer support economic prosperity.

    And, we’re not far behind.
    For the three months ending January of 2012, consumer spending fell flat when compared to 2010 (source: U.S. Commerce Department). That should have been an up-swing period given the period represents the holiday shopping season. Consumer spending was flat because personal income was flat while inflation is lighting up gasoline and food prices. And, in January, inflation-adjusted real disposable personal income actually fell 0.1%.

    Disposable personal income fell two of the last three months. Year-over-year, it was up only a tiny 0.6%.

    But look. Something else is happening – just like in Europe about a year ago.
    For January 2012, the consumer savings rate started to fall from 4.7% from 4.6%.

    So how can our gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth resume here in the U.S. when consumer spending is 70% of GDP and real disposable personal income is falling?

    It can’t.
    Oil prices are the wild card that eats away at our dismal disposable income ability. Don’t get me started on oil price increases. You can feel it at the pump any time you fill your car.

    In February, manufacturing in the U.S. slowed 1.7% from January’s level. New orders for goods to be delivered in the future, fell 2.7% from January.

    There will be no economic growth in the U.S. this year. Any news of such is a Wall Street sucker’s rally with the purpose of bringing investors back into the stock market before stock prices decline again. Our biggest fear should be that our policy makers will repeat the mistakes made by their European counterparts and be unable to stop this demise before it’s too late.
  12. cashmcall

    cashmcall Well-Known Member

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    Not bad..but the markets still have a few value stocks..
  13. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    Yeah I know. But it never hurts to tuck a case or two of jerky under the bed. : )
  14. Cruella

    Cruella Well-Known Member

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    If we've printed a lot of money and devalued the dollar, isn't that a type of masked inflation? And doesn't the Feds have to adventually pull those dollars back in and dispose of them?
  15. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    I don't think there is any question about it. We are headed for a big crash, which could be much worse than the Great Depression. And why? Who is to blame? Of course that is easy to answer. The fault lies entirely with liberals and progressives who have promoted and instituted economic policies which have destroyed our economy and these same fools refuse even now, to fix the problem.....hence BO's delusional budget.

    I am getting into gold and silver as a hedge in the event of total collapse.

    Remember, BO and Dipshit Biden considered a bank holiday in 2009. This means the government closing the banks as was done in the 1930s. There could be runs on banks as people fear they can't get to their money....even though the value of that money is being degraded steadily by the Fed with it's printing press. http://investmentwatchblog.com/biden-we-considered-declaring-a-bank-holiday-2009/#.T3Wc-zEW0ms

    What is the number one hedge against inflation and economic chaos? Gold and silver.

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