May 21 2011

[Centrehalf]

There are ways to test if what he says has internal consistency, reliability, and validity, etc.

Really? You think so?

 

[Dr.Who]

Really? You think so?

Yes.

Internal consistency is how much many different statements by one source agree with each other. This guy has put forth different dates several times now so he fails to have internal consistency.

Reliability is related and can be an estimate of how well everything he says means the same thing every time he says it.

Validity refers to how strongly the outcome of what he says squares with reality. We don't know the outcome of his predictions until after they do or do not happen but but we can test the "construct validity" to see if the theory of what he predicts squares with other theories. He fails that one too because another, stronger, source says we won't know the date.