Hell freezes over: Koch's scientists confirm that climate change is REAL!

in looking at Pale's links I don't think thats right, particularly see the third one. at best it suggests that you might divide it in half as half the earth is dark at any given moment. but it (the 1376) seems to accommodate the variations from the elliptical path around the sun etc.

Since the Earth is roughly the same distance from the sun, the variation wouldn't be much, regardless of where the Earth is in its orbit.

I'm not sure how the 25% figure is calculated, but you do have to account for the earth's albedo, as well as its shape. What is obvious is that the lower figure, the one used in the diagram explaining the energy budget, has to be the one that accounts for the above, whereas the solar constant is simply a measure of how much energy is coming in, and would be hitting a flat surface (plane) were there such a thing in space.
 
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Since the Earth is roughly the same distance from the sun, the variation wouldn't be much, regardless of where the Earth is in its orbit.

I'm not sure how the 25% figure is calculated, but you do have to account for the earth's albedo, as well as its shape. What is obvious is that the lower figure, the one used in the diagram explaining the energy budget, has to be the one that accounts for the above, whereas the solar constant is simply a measure of how much energy is coming in, and would be hitting a flat surface (plane) were there such a thing in space.


The solar constant (ISC) is the average radiation intensity falling on an imaginary surface,
perpendicular to the Sun's rays and at the edge of the Earth's atmosphere (figure 2.1). The word
'constant' is a little misleading since, because of the Earth's elliptical orbit the intensity of the solar
radiation falling on the Earth changes by about 7% between January 1st, when the Earth is nearest
the Sun, and July 3rd, when the Earth is furthest from the Sun (figure 1.2). A yearly average value is
thus taken and the solar constant equals 1367 W/m2. Even this value is inaccurate since the output
of the sun changes by about ±0.25% due to Sun spot cycles.

7% is not trivial though the variation owing to sunspots etc is at a .25%.

but it seems like that divided by four needs to be explained as its not making much sense if you are talking about this theoretical balanced average like thing called the Solar Constant (ISC).
 
7% is not trivial though the variation owing to sunspots etc is at a .25%.

but it seems like that divided by four needs to be explained as its not making much sense if you are talking about this theoretical balanced average like thing called the Solar Constant (ISC).
The figure on the energy budget diagram is about 25% of the solar constant. Sunspots and the elliptical orbit are not close to being enough to explain the difference. The definition of solar constant as the amount of energy that would fall on a flat plane is the only thing that could explain the difference.
 
The figure on the energy budget diagram is about 25% of the solar constant. Sunspots and the elliptical orbit are not close to being enough to explain the difference. The definition of solar constant as the amount of energy that would fall on a flat plane is the only thing that could explain the difference.

the spots and ellipticalness are already factored into the constant.
what remains a mystery at least to me is the quartering since the Constant (admittedly a theoretical one) is, well, the constant.
 
The key is in the way the constant is defined.

well that article (3rd in Pale's list) shows the definition I snipped above and it seemed pretty clear to me. its a derived theoretical average (average as I think of one as opposed to any sort of technical definition) and I don't understand why it would have any need of quartering.

well maybe it could have to do with all these other things in the diagram not being measured / calculated / derived in a way that is similarly randomized as the Constant. I would have to think that this would need to be pointed out or be a known part of the definotion of these other things and common to all of them.
 
Palerider had me going for a while.

On the one hand, the solar constant is, actually, 1,367 watts/square meter. Indisputable.

On the other hand, it is somewhat difficult to believe that someone posting on an internet forum under a pseudonym (I know, I'm doing the same thing. I'm just not trying to dispute NASA) actually found a basic error that escaped said organization, along with the other scientific organizations.

If it weren't so sad PLC, it would be funny. I don't quite understand why you are unable to understand that by pointing out the parameters of the kiehl - trenberth model of the earth's energy budget, I am not disputing NASA, kiehl - trenberth, the ipcc, or anyone else. I am merely relating to you the parameters of the model upon which AGW alarmism, and your position is based. You may not like it, or be able to wrap your mind around the fact that it represents a flat earth with no night time, but that is what it represents.

So, I did a little research, and looked up the term "solar constant." This is what I found:

The solar constant, a measure of flux density, is the amount of incoming solar electromagnetic radiation per unit area that would be incident on a plane perpendicular to the rays, at a distance of one astronomical unit (AU) (roughly the mean distance from the Sun to the Earth). When solar irradiance is measured on the outer surface of Earth's atmosphere,[1] the measurements can be adjusted using the inverse square law to infer the magnitude of solar irradiance at one AU and deduce the solar constant.[

that would be incident on a plane, i.e., a flat surface.

Congratulations, you are starting to get it. Of course, it is clear that a "little" research is all you did when a great deal of research is in order. The solar constant represents a flat disk. or more accurately the amount of incoming solar radiation that would strike a flat disk. And that is where the fraud begins. Note that I am not saying that it is an error in the model. The design of the model has a purpose and there are no errors in it on the part of kiehl or trenberth, and no overlooking of any error by any scientific organization that accepts it. An overlooked error would be great. It would be wonderful to say that a huge error has gone overlooked and a mistake of epic proportions has been made but alas, that is not the case. You are the victim of a deliberate fraud.

Such as a flat Earth.

Exactly, a flat earth. That goes back to the P/4 issue I have already covered with you. The solar constant is 1370 watts per square meter.

You can express the solar constant as follows:

gif.latex


You would properly express that energy reaching the earth as follows:

gif.latex
where the incoming radiation is divided by 2 thus exposing half of the surface of the earth to the incoming solar radiation while the dark side of the earth is in the process of constantly cooling till shortly after sunrise.

That isn't, however, how kiehl - trenberth expressed the solar radiation reaching the earth. They expressed the incoming solar radiation as follows:

gif.latex


You need to understand that the /4 is nothing more than what you do with the solar constant once it reaches earth. If you expressed it as /2 then you would have a sphere which is dark on one side and light on the other. kiehl - trenberth, however didn't do that. They expressed the incoming solar constant as /4 which makes a flat disk of the earth which has no night and evenly distributes all of the incoming solar radiation over the entire surface of the earth at once and in effect, denies night when in reality, the day time half of the earth is absorbing twice as much as the entire earth is radiating at any given time.

The expression on the right side of the = sign on the kiehl - trenberth equation above is an attempt to make the incoming radiation balance with the outgoing radiation in effect, making the balance zero, or as close to it as possible ( and corrupting the Stefan-Boltzman law in the process but we won't get into that right now). In doing so, they have denied a day/night cycle and made daytime exist 24 hours a day. The incoming energy is NOT equal in flux density, and therefore temperature to the outgoing radiation

So, it appears that it is not NASA who thinks the Earth is flat, is it?

I never said that NASA thinks the earth is flat. I said that they have accepted an energy budget which depicts the earth as a flat disk which doesn't rotate and therefore is in daylight all the time but at only 1/4 of the actual intensity. In fact, anyone who is promoting AGW alarmism and a greenhouse effect as described by that energy budget has accepted a flat earth with no night and incoming solar radiation at 1/4 the actual rate.

The formula above is from keihl - trenberth and it means what it means. If you believe that it means something else, by all means, lets hear your description of how and what you believe it means.
 
7% is not trivial though the variation owing to sunspots etc is at a .25%.

but it seems like that divided by four needs to be explained as its not making much sense if you are talking about this theoretical balanced average like thing called the Solar Constant (ISC).

The /4 is not something that you are doing with the incoming radiation. The incoming radiation, even in the kiehl - trenberth is the solar constant. The /4 is what they are doing with the surface of the earth. As you said if you divide the solar constant by 2 then you represent the earth as a sphere which is being irradiated across 180 degrees of its surface and dark across 180 degrees of its surface at any given time. By dividing the solar constant by 4, you have made the earth a flat disk being irradiated across its entire surface 24 hours a day.
 
The /4 is not something that you are doing with the incoming radiation. The incoming radiation, even in the kiehl - trenberth is the solar constant. The /4 is what they are doing with the surface of the earth. As you said if you divide the solar constant by 2 then you represent the earth as a sphere which is being irradiated across 180 degrees of its surface and dark across 180 degrees of its surface at any given time. By dividing the solar constant by 4, you have made the earth a flat disk being irradiated across its entire surface 24 hours a day.

which coincidentally makes the math work in making CO2 a boogyman ?
 
If it weren't so sad PLC, it would be funny. I don't quite understand why you are unable to understand that by pointing out the parameters of the kiehl - trenberth model of the earth's energy budget, I am not disputing NASA, kiehl - trenberth, the ipcc, or anyone else. I am merely relating to you the parameters of the model upon which AGW alarmism, and your position is based.

My position is the position of NASA. We have the same position, that science is the best way of determining what is happening, that the Earth is in a warming cycle, and that human activities are accelerating the trend. You can't dispute my position without disputing NASA and every other scientific organization world wide.

You may not like it, or be able to wrap your mind around the fact that it represents a flat earth with no night time, but that is what it represents.

The solar constant represents the amount of energy that would fall on a plane. The diagram you're having a problem with does not use the solar constant. Ergo, it does not represent a flat Earth with no nighttime. If it did, then the energy reaching Earth would have to be more, not less than the figure given.

Further, I'm not taking an "alarmist" position. That is just a bit of hype with no meaning at all.
 
My position is the position of NASA. We have the same position, that science is the best way of determining what is happening, that the Earth is in a warming cycle, and that human activities are accelerating the trend. You can't dispute my position without disputing NASA and every other scientific organization world wide.

If your position is the same as that of nasa, then you are taking an alarmist position and are basing that position on pseudoscience.

The solar constant represents the amount of energy that would fall on a plane. The diagram you're having a problem with does not use the solar constant. Ergo, it does not represent a flat Earth with no nighttime. If it did, then the energy reaching Earth would have to be more, not less than the figure given.

This isn't rocket science PLC. Either you are simply not up to grasping the math or are being deliberately obtuse. Of course the solar constant is the amount of energy that would be hitting a plane. But by expressing the flux of that constant to the surface of the earth in terms of P/4, they represent the earth as a plane also. The diagram I gave you, the diagram upon which AGW alarmism is based by the way does use the solar constant. It is divided by 4 because the energy budget portrays the earth as a flat plane that doesn't experience night.

I gave you the formula used by kiehl - trenberth and explained to you what it means and showed you how it must look if it were to depict an earth that rotates and experiences night across 180 degrees of its surface. As to requiring more energy reaching the earth, as you rightly point out....that brings us back to the 333 watts per square meter claimed to be radiated from the cooler atmosphere back to the surface of the earth where it is absorbed and re radiated in violation of the second law of thermodynamics, the law of conservation of energy, and the Stefan - Boltzman law.

Your refusal to see what is right before your eyes is interesting. Do you really place that much faith in government funded science?
 
not sure I'd use the term "funny". it's never run true for me but I have to say I find this level of shenanigans most brazen.

You are right, it isn't funny. Not funny at all and yet, that is where we stand. Of course, the walls of the church of AGW are cracking and the cracks are growing progressively larger now that hard science (physics, chemistry, astrophysics, etc.) have entered the fray as a result of the damage that climate pseudoscience has done, and is doing to the reputation of science across the board.
 
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If your position is the same as that of nasa, then you are taking an alarmist position and are basing that position on pseudoscience.

IYO, and yet, you say you're not " disputing NASA, kiehl - trenberth, the ipcc, or anyone else."

So, you must be supporting the "alarmist" position, too, or at least not disputing it.
.This isn't rocket science PLC. Either you are simply not up to grasping the math or are being deliberately obtuse.

Or, a third alternative, is that your opinion doesn't hold water.

Of course the solar constant is the amount of energy that would be hitting a plane.

Which is what you said about the diagram you seem to be having such a problem with, yet the numbers are quite different.


The diagram I gave you, the diagram upon which AGW alarmism is based by the way does use the solar constant. It is divided by 4 because the energy budget portrays the earth as a flat plane that doesn't experience night.

I've already addressed that one. Why rehash the obvious? The number in the solar constant is bigger than the one on the graph. If we're supposing a flat plane that doesn't experience night, then the energy hitting it would be greater. As you said, it isn't rocket science.


Your refusal to see what is right before your eyes is interesting. Do you really place that much faith in government funded science?

When it's backed up by non government funded science, sure.

I can believe someone who is posting on an internet forum, or the findings of every scientific organization on Earth. You have a huge burden of proof, and what you've come up with thus far is simply not supportable.

Of course, I knew I couldn't change your mind. Debating this issue is a lot like debating the 9/11 truthers, or any other conspiracy theorist: Logic and fact have no effect.
 
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