Hokeshel,
The studies you quoted all support the position that sex offenders are not likely to commit another sex crime after release, and that they are less likely than the average criminal to end up with another felony conviction (for any charge) after release from prison.
From the studies you linked to:
The Iowa Study
Page 2 Paragraph 1: "It appears that sex offense recidivism is relatively low when compared to other reoffenses ... The majority of reoffenses incuded other violent crimes, property offenses and/or probation or parole violations"
Page 10 Paragraph 2: "Sex-offense recidivism was low at 3.0 percent for the registry sample and 3.5 percent for the preregistry sample. The recidivism rate, including both sex-offense and non-sex-offense convictions, was 24.5 percent for the entire registry sample and 33.3 percent for the entire preregistry sample. The differences in recidivism were not found to be statistically significant."
Page 13 Graph: I cant paste this here, but the trend line is clear. Recidivism rate tapers over time, it does not increase as you suggest. (Of course as long as the recidivism rate is above zero the total number of reoffenses is obviously going to be larger over a larger time period)
The Arizona Study
Paragraph 5: "Among the 3,205 released sex offenders, 25.2% returned to prison in Arizona at least once within an average follow-up period of 6.85 years. Among the 3,205, 18.9% returned with a new felony conviction, 10.0% with a new felony conviction for a crime against persons (violent or sex crime), and 5.5% with a new felony conviction for a sex crime." That first sentence is a lower overall rate than the study I originally quoted. The last sentence is a slightly higher rate specific to sex offenders, but still in the 5% range (1 in 20 reoffend does not meet the definition of "likely" in my book)
Paragraph 8: "For released sex offenders who could be followed for the following lengths of time, 2.5% returned to prison with a new felony conviction within one year of release, 8.2% within two years, 12.6% within three years, 15.7% within four years, 18.3% within five years, 20.7% within six years, 22.4% within seven years, 24.0% within eight years, 24.8% within nine years, 26.2% within ten years, 26.8% within eleven years, and 28.3% within twelve years." I assume this is where you were getting at the idea that recividism increases over time. In fact if you read it carefully you see these are cumulative numbers, allow me to do the math to translate these into yearly totals: Year 1: 2.5% Year 2: 5.7% Year 3: 4.4% Year 4: 3.1% Year 5: 1.6% Year 6: 2.4% Year 7: 1.7% Year 8: 0.8% Year 9: 1.4% Year 10: 0.6% For a total of 26.8% recividism for any crime (not specifically sex a offense, which this study says was at 5.5% total over the 10 year period). So you see recividism peaks in year two and tapers after that.
The Pennsylvania Study
Summary Paragraph One: "Profiles of sex offenders consistently reveal low recidivism rates when compared to general offenders. Overall, approximately 5.3% of sex offenders are rearrested for a sex crime within 3 years of release." This agrees with all the other studies you and I have quoted. It suggests what I'm saying is true, which is that recividism is lower in sex offenders than the general criminal population.
Summary Paragraph One: "Sudies with extended follow-up periods reveal, however, that sex offender recidivism rates do not level off after 3 years but continue to grow. Extending a follow-up of sex offenders to 7 years produced a rate of 17.5%. It should be notedthat this recidivism rate is significantly lower than recidivism rates typically observed by general offenders" This number interestingly is lower than the Arizona study for general recidivism, and both authors point out that the number is lower than the general criminal population.
Body Paragraph One: "Also, compared to non-sex offenders, sex offenders had a lower overall rearrest rate for any type of crime (43% vs 68%) Furthermore, sex offenders were rearrested for less serious crimes. Of those who were rearrested 84% of non-sex offenders were rearrested for a felony while only 75% of sex offenders were arrested for a felony." In his opening paragraph the author of the PA study is quoting the DoJ study I quoted, and stating explicitly that sex offenders are less likely to be rearrested.
Body Paragraph Two: "Non-incest child molesters who molest boys are specifically at a high risk of recidivism. In fact, one study revealed that the highest recidivism rate among sex offenders was for those with previous sex offenses, who victimized boys from outside the family, and were never married. These sex offenders recidivated at a rate of 77%" A small subset of sex offenders, when whittled down using 4 different narrowing variables could be controlled to have a recidivism rate 9% higher than the average criminal (remember average criminal is 68%) Keep in mind one of the variables used was previous offenses, which inherently raises the likelyhood of more reoffenses in sex offenders and more vanilla criminals.
I would agree with you that a lifelong study would be nice. It would make the case more clearly either way, though since we know from the article that you linked that recidivism actually peaks in year 2, we can make well educated guesses on 3 to 7 year studies. All those studies say the following things:
1) Sex offenders are not likely to commit another sex crime after release from prison
2) Sex offenders are less likely than the average criminal to commit another felony after release from prison
So with those two facts undisputed, can anyone tell me why sex offenders should be treated differently than regular criminals?
The studies you quoted all support the position that sex offenders are not likely to commit another sex crime after release, and that they are less likely than the average criminal to end up with another felony conviction (for any charge) after release from prison.
From the studies you linked to:
The Iowa Study
Page 2 Paragraph 1: "It appears that sex offense recidivism is relatively low when compared to other reoffenses ... The majority of reoffenses incuded other violent crimes, property offenses and/or probation or parole violations"
Page 10 Paragraph 2: "Sex-offense recidivism was low at 3.0 percent for the registry sample and 3.5 percent for the preregistry sample. The recidivism rate, including both sex-offense and non-sex-offense convictions, was 24.5 percent for the entire registry sample and 33.3 percent for the entire preregistry sample. The differences in recidivism were not found to be statistically significant."
Page 13 Graph: I cant paste this here, but the trend line is clear. Recidivism rate tapers over time, it does not increase as you suggest. (Of course as long as the recidivism rate is above zero the total number of reoffenses is obviously going to be larger over a larger time period)
The Arizona Study
Paragraph 5: "Among the 3,205 released sex offenders, 25.2% returned to prison in Arizona at least once within an average follow-up period of 6.85 years. Among the 3,205, 18.9% returned with a new felony conviction, 10.0% with a new felony conviction for a crime against persons (violent or sex crime), and 5.5% with a new felony conviction for a sex crime." That first sentence is a lower overall rate than the study I originally quoted. The last sentence is a slightly higher rate specific to sex offenders, but still in the 5% range (1 in 20 reoffend does not meet the definition of "likely" in my book)
Paragraph 8: "For released sex offenders who could be followed for the following lengths of time, 2.5% returned to prison with a new felony conviction within one year of release, 8.2% within two years, 12.6% within three years, 15.7% within four years, 18.3% within five years, 20.7% within six years, 22.4% within seven years, 24.0% within eight years, 24.8% within nine years, 26.2% within ten years, 26.8% within eleven years, and 28.3% within twelve years." I assume this is where you were getting at the idea that recividism increases over time. In fact if you read it carefully you see these are cumulative numbers, allow me to do the math to translate these into yearly totals: Year 1: 2.5% Year 2: 5.7% Year 3: 4.4% Year 4: 3.1% Year 5: 1.6% Year 6: 2.4% Year 7: 1.7% Year 8: 0.8% Year 9: 1.4% Year 10: 0.6% For a total of 26.8% recividism for any crime (not specifically sex a offense, which this study says was at 5.5% total over the 10 year period). So you see recividism peaks in year two and tapers after that.
The Pennsylvania Study
Summary Paragraph One: "Profiles of sex offenders consistently reveal low recidivism rates when compared to general offenders. Overall, approximately 5.3% of sex offenders are rearrested for a sex crime within 3 years of release." This agrees with all the other studies you and I have quoted. It suggests what I'm saying is true, which is that recividism is lower in sex offenders than the general criminal population.
Summary Paragraph One: "Sudies with extended follow-up periods reveal, however, that sex offender recidivism rates do not level off after 3 years but continue to grow. Extending a follow-up of sex offenders to 7 years produced a rate of 17.5%. It should be notedthat this recidivism rate is significantly lower than recidivism rates typically observed by general offenders" This number interestingly is lower than the Arizona study for general recidivism, and both authors point out that the number is lower than the general criminal population.
Body Paragraph One: "Also, compared to non-sex offenders, sex offenders had a lower overall rearrest rate for any type of crime (43% vs 68%) Furthermore, sex offenders were rearrested for less serious crimes. Of those who were rearrested 84% of non-sex offenders were rearrested for a felony while only 75% of sex offenders were arrested for a felony." In his opening paragraph the author of the PA study is quoting the DoJ study I quoted, and stating explicitly that sex offenders are less likely to be rearrested.
Body Paragraph Two: "Non-incest child molesters who molest boys are specifically at a high risk of recidivism. In fact, one study revealed that the highest recidivism rate among sex offenders was for those with previous sex offenses, who victimized boys from outside the family, and were never married. These sex offenders recidivated at a rate of 77%" A small subset of sex offenders, when whittled down using 4 different narrowing variables could be controlled to have a recidivism rate 9% higher than the average criminal (remember average criminal is 68%) Keep in mind one of the variables used was previous offenses, which inherently raises the likelyhood of more reoffenses in sex offenders and more vanilla criminals.
I would agree with you that a lifelong study would be nice. It would make the case more clearly either way, though since we know from the article that you linked that recidivism actually peaks in year 2, we can make well educated guesses on 3 to 7 year studies. All those studies say the following things:
1) Sex offenders are not likely to commit another sex crime after release from prison
2) Sex offenders are less likely than the average criminal to commit another felony after release from prison
So with those two facts undisputed, can anyone tell me why sex offenders should be treated differently than regular criminals?
