The megamillions lottery and the irrationaliy of people

[Rick]

Scads of people are lining up all over the country to get megamillions lottery tickets. The current odds of winning the jackpot, over $300 million, is 176 million to one. The irrationality of people playing given the odds is stunning. Compare the odds of that with other things that might happen to you:


Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1

Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of an American speaking Cherokee: 15,000 to 1

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1

Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1

Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1

Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1

Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1

Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1

Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1

Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1

Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1

Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1

Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1

Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.

Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820

Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380

Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421

Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524

Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319

Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035

Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000

Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377

Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000

Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3

Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26

Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© 2011 compiled from many sources by Howard Daughters

 

[steveox]

Scads of people are lining up all over the country to get megamillions lottery tickets. The current odds of winning the jackpot, over $300 million, is 176 million to one. The irrationality of people playing given the odds is stunning. Compare the odds of that with other things that might happen to you:


Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1

Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of an American speaking Cherokee: 15,000 to 1

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1

Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1

Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1

Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1

Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1

Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1

Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1

Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1

Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1

Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1

Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1

Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.

Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820

Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380

Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421

Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524

Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319

Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035

Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000

Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377

Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000

Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3

Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26

Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© 2011 compiled from many sources by Howard Daughters

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

I Got 10 Major league balls during BP at Camden yards. I go Early thats how i beat those odds

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Only if Youre a Millionare or Billionare like O.J Simpson for example.

And Heres another on to consider

Odds of your prayers answered by GOD: 100,000,000 to 1

 

[PLC1]

Odds of dying sooner or later: 100%

Great stats. Where did they come from?

Playing the lottery, like any other form of gambling, is a tax on people who don't understand odds.

 

[dahermit]

Playing the lottery, like any other form of gambling, is a tax on people who don't understand odds.

Odds of winning the lottery if one does not buy a ticket = 0 out of many million.
Odds of winning the lottery if one buys a single ticket 1 out of many million.

Nevertheless, someone will eventually win. But I would not count on it for my retirement.

 

[PLC1]

Odds of winning the lottery if one does not buy a ticket = 0 out of many million.
Odds of winning the lottery if one buys a single ticket 1 out of many million.

Nevertheless, someone will eventually win. But I would not count on it for my retirement.

LOL! No, better not count on it for retirement.

Someone does have to win, and the rest get to dream about what they would do with all that money. What they're selling are dreams.

 

[Rick]

When someone does win, it's usually some yokel. The lottery people love that, because when they trot the person out for publicity, all the yokels will say "Gosh - I'm a yokel too - that means folks like me can win!"

 

[dahermit]

When someone does win, it's usually some yokel. The lottery people love that, because when they trot the person out for publicity, all the yokels will say "Gosh - I'm a yokel too - that means folks like me can win!"

What always amazes me is the large number of lottery winners that have lost it all in less than two years.
Also, it is my impression that those who can least afford to buy lottery tickets are the ones who buy the most...desperation I would imagine.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Odds of dying sooner or later: 100%

Great stats. Where did they come from?

Playing the lottery, like any other form of gambling, is a tax on people who don't understand odds.

what I don't understand is..

Gambling is Illegal..

the Lotto is not

Pull tabs are not for charities..

Texas Hold-um is Illegal for money...though the amount of luck needed is actuly pretty small...For anyone who thinks Poker is about luck..its not..one hand is about luck..but if it was just luck you would not see the same people in the top of the turnaments each year out of thousands..most hands are won..without ever showing your cards...meaning what cards you had...did not mean as much.

also I call the lotto, the MN stupid tax

 

[Rick]

What always amazes me is the large number of lottery winners that have lost it all in less than two years.
Also, it is my impression that those who can least afford to buy lottery tickets are the ones who buy the most...desperation I would imagine.

Yep, it's essentially a tax on the lowerclass.

 

[PLC1]

what I don't understand is..

Gambling is Illegal..

the Lotto is not

Pull tabs are not for charities..

Texas Hold-um is Illegal for money...though the amount of luck needed is actuly pretty small...For anyone who thinks Poker is about luck..its not..one hand is about luck..but if it was just luck you would not see the same people in the top of the turnaments each year out of thousands..most hands are won..without ever showing your cards...meaning what cards you had...did not mean as much.

also I call the lotto, the MN stupid tax

You mean to say that out laws aren't always totally realistic and logical? How could that be? Why, we never elect a lawmaker who isn't totally realistic and logical, do we?

 

[steveox]

Now why cant politicans add a Wall Street tax? So Lottos is a Volentary tax for the poor and Wall Street tax is a Volentary tax for the rich.

 

[PLC1]

Now why cant politicans add a Wall Street tax? So Lottos is a Volentary tax for the poor and Wall Street tax is a Volentary tax for the rich.

The rich didn't get rich by paying voluntary taxes.

 

[BigRob]

Now why cant politicans add a Wall Street tax? So Lottos is a Volentary tax for the poor and Wall Street tax is a Volentary tax for the rich.

Why don't you just stop flushing money down the toilet in the lottery and start buying something that might actually make you some money...like stock?

 

[dahermit]

Why don't you just stop flushing money down the toilet in the lottery and start buying something that might actually make you some money...like stock?

It is infinitely easier for someone (poor, relatively uneducated), to buy a lottery ticket than it is to buy stock. Most poor people would not have the $2000 minimum to start an TDAmeritrade account, or the knowledge to manipulate their accounts successfully, but have the few spare bucks at the gas station to buy a few lotto tickets. That is why.

 

[GenSeneca]

Odds are 176 million to one to win... Jackpot is 300 million... Buy 176 million lotto tickets and you're good to go.