North Korea move to war?

[dahermit]

This April North Korea sub sunk a South Korean ship for no apparent reason. Was North Korea trying to provoke a war with the South? If not, for what possible reason would they perpetrate that unprovoked attack.
A possible reason N.K. would start a war with the South is that their economy is so hopeless, that they think that their only hope is to absorb the industrial capability (wealth of the South), via war.
If not, what was the purpose of the attack?

 

[pocketfullofshells]

This April North Korea sub sunk a South Korean ship for no apparent reason. Was North Korea trying to provoke a war with the South? If not, for what possible reason would they perpetrate that unprovoked attack.
A possible reason N.K. would start a war with the South is that their economy is so hopeless, that they think that their only hope is to absorb the industrial capability (wealth of the South), via war.
If not, what was the purpose of the attack?

The reason for the attack, is a combo of a few things most likey ( lets face it we may never realy know..)

1. you attack and sing sub...South has no choice but to react along with US in a aggressive way....What is the natural reaction of a nation when attacked? Think America pre Sept 11...and how it was months after...the change in thoughts...All of the sudden those who said Bush sucked...backed of, the flag flys all over...and the people ask what can we do to help ready to listen to anything ...( and buy anything ...Iraq WMD Evidence was not questioned like it would have been pre sep 11)....

The mindset is set now, the econ is on back burner....you could be invaded! War! the Imprerialst are going to take what little you have and kill you!....Now your the leader, sick, and need your kid to take over...the military is not 100% backing this ...one can be sure some on top would like to take over...and some are at best unsure about it....But in the face off all this, they tend to back off comments, less likey to want to push for anyone else as to weaken the nation while ready for war....

And now the stage is set, to push things you would have had harder time with before, and the people will not question...they are distracted....

and really what did he lose? He knows the South will not invade over it, or even launch a small attack....And for all the problems created....just more reason to point out, the Evil South and America are crushing trade and your econ...they are at fault not me.

Make no Mistake, he is not well in the head, prone to crazy ideas ( and more crazy propaganda) but he does not want a full war, he knows its the end of him and his government, and will lose...But with small strings, followed by threats of massive retaliation...he knows he can get away with it.

 

[The Scotsman]

Make no Mistake, he is not well in the head, prone to crazy ideas ( and more crazy propaganda) but he does not want a full war, he knows its the end of him and his government, and will lose...But with small strings, followed by threats of massive retaliation...he knows he can get away with it.

........what he will do is closely monitor South Korean public reaction and depending upon how well the DPRK interprete this they will calibrate their reactions accordingly and either ramp up the rhetoric if the opportunity affords or continue to bluster on about their innocence. Its an interesting spectacle really if you think about it and a well chosen target; a ship at sea, in the contested zone and a torpedo - nice and quick. From an internal perspective its interesting to see how they've tried to extend the life of a moribund regieme by provoking a situation where war threatens; they've chosen to extend the life of the Dear Leader as an alternative to a progressive internal implosion!

IMHO there will be no war. The DPRK has no offensive capability apart from human waves emerging from the tunnels - it would be wholesale slaughter!

As for South Korea the opporunity for America to sell them better anti-submarine warfare kit and for thre DPRK China will give the Dear Leader a slap on the wrist and tell him not to do it again

 

[dahermit]

....
IMHO there will be no war. The DPRK has no offensive capability apart from human waves emerging from the tunnels - it would be wholesale slaughter!

It seems that they have a lot more than starving soldiers. They seem to have plenty of offensive capability including nuclear!
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/

Also, they could flood large areas of the South by destroying their own reservoirs without actually invading.

In short, there are enough resources available to destroy both countries if a war were to begin.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

........what he will do is closely monitor South Korean public reaction and depending upon how well the DPRK interprete this they will calibrate their reactions accordingly and either ramp up the rhetoric if the opportunity affords or continue to bluster on about their innocence. Its an interesting spectacle really if you think about it and a well chosen target; a ship at sea, in the contested zone and a torpedo - nice and quick. From an internal perspective its interesting to see how they've tried to extend the life of a moribund regieme by provoking a situation where war threatens; they've chosen to extend the life of the Dear Leader as an alternative to a progressive internal implosion!

IMHO there will be no war. The DPRK has no offensive capability apart from human waves emerging from the tunnels - it would be wholesale slaughter!

As for South Korea the opporunity for America to sell them better anti-submarine warfare kit and for thre DPRK China will give the Dear Leader a slap on the wrist and tell him not to do it again

no offense? I take if you have never looked at there military? They have enough artillery to Decimate the south in a matter of hours. Nukes...and one of largest standing armies in the world...the US has like 23,000 troops in the south, rest is on S. Korea until we can sent more ( if we did)

While the north I don't think is looking to go to war....if it did...trust me if has enough offense to hold its own for a while ..maybe not win or take the south...but do a hell of alot of damage and kill huge amount of people.

 

[The Scotsman]

Pocket WTF use is artillery when it can be destroyed prior to a shot leaving the barrel - the DPRK has 1960s military technology at best! They have no viable offensive capability at all. They have no capability to dominate airspace. They have no capability to sustain an army in the field.

Shall we explore their nuclear delivery systems! The "warhead" I'm assuming is going to be transported in stages by train so the army of technicians, scientists and guards can go with it! I assume that they will get unhindered access to the location they want to detonate it in as it will probably take several weeks to get it up and running....

 

[dahermit]

Pocket WTF use is artillery when it can be destroyed prior to a shot leaving the barrel - the DPRK has 1960s military technology at best! They have no viable offensive capability at all. They have no capability to dominate airspace. They have no capability to sustain an army in the field.

Shall we explore their nuclear delivery systems! The "warhead" I'm assuming is going to be transported in stages by train so the army of technicians, scientists and guards can go with it! I assume that they will get unhindered access to the location they want to detonate it in as it will probably take several weeks to get it up and running....

You are making a lot of assumptions about what N.K. would have to do before going to war/using a nuke. Consider that providing N.K. has already seen fit to do an act of war (the sub attack on the S.K. ship), they may have already done the things you state, prior to the sub attack. Furthermore, you are ignoring the fact that N.K. only has to blow its own reservoir to wipe out a large portion of S.K.

 

[PLC1]

Kim Jung Il and his failed state are dependent on China for their continued existence, and the new capitalist state of China's focus is on the bottom line. A war on their border is not good for said bottom line, so they aren't about to let it happen.

Further, one has to wonder just how much longer the Communist government in NK is going to be able to keep their people under their thumb as communication becomes better and they see how their brothers in the south are living. Love of big Brother can only go so far when the outside world is a cell phone call away.

 

[The Scotsman]

You are making a lot of assumptions about what N.K. would have to do before going to war/using a nuke....

.....nope! No assumptions at all its a simple fact!

There's nothing stopping the DPRK going to war its just that they'ed all die rather pointless deaths rather rapidly! I think I'd feel sorriest for the tank crews - burning to death in the confined space of a steel hulled tank.............yuck

 

[The Scotsman]

Further, one has to wonder just how much longer the Communist government in NK is going to be able to keep their people under their thumb as communication becomes better and they see how their brothers in the south are living. Love of big Brother can only go so far when the outside world is a cell phone call away.

.............totally agree!

 

[dahermit]

If you look closely, you will see that the N.K. citizens do not have access to the internet, or cell phones. Also, when at rallies for the anointed one, they still froth at the mouth with adoration.
As for making the statement that the N.K. could not do huge damage, that is the assumption both sides in a war usually make before one starts. "It will be over by Xmas..." "...they do not have a chance against...", etc., etc. And of course, "...the third world country of Iraq will fall within six months against the mighty U.S. war capability..." (how many years has it been?). And then there was Somalia.
Until it happens, no one knows what the other side will do or how successful they will be. I only know that the last Korean war killed nearly as many Americans during its 3 year span as did Viet Nam in ten years of fighting.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Pocket WTF use is artillery when it can be destroyed prior to a shot leaving the barrel - the DPRK has 1960s military technology at best! They have no viable offensive capability at all. They have no capability to dominate airspace. They have no capability to sustain an army in the field.

Shall we explore their nuclear delivery systems! The "warhead" I'm assuming is going to be transported in stages by train so the army of technicians, scientists and guards can go with it! I assume that they will get unhindered access to the location they want to detonate it in as it will probably take several weeks to get it up and running....

Im sorry when did we get the instant laser from space that knows where all artillery units are hidden? Cuz thats what you seem to think we have.

 

[The Scotsman]

Im sorry when did we get the instant laser from space that knows where all artillery units are hidden? Cuz thats what you seem to think we have.

I'll answer that with a question if may - the DMZ is one of the most militarised regions on earth, it has a concentration of a full division per mile and a half of frontage. OPLAN 5030 assumes that the NorKs would strike first so do you not think that the the US military will keep tabs on anything that moves in that area? I do! My "suspicion" is your armed forces know where these systems are located down to the twelth coordinate (.1 X .1 meter) because if I was in command I would! I'd want to know where these units hide positions are and the routes to their launch sites so that I can have my counter battery systems ready!

 

[dahermit]

I'll answer that with a question if may - the DMZ is one of the most militarised regions on earth, it has a concentration of a full division per mile and a half of frontage. OPLAN 5030 assumes that the NorKs would strike first so do you not think that the the US military will keep tabs on anything that moves in that area? I do! My "suspicion" is your armed forces know where these systems are located down to the twelth coordinate (.1 X .1 meter) because if I was in command I would! I'd want to know where these units hide positions are and the routes to their launch sites so that I can have my counter battery systems ready!

Yes, it is obvious that South Korea is safe from the North due to its Maginot line. Also, you keep ignoring my references to the effects of flooding that would happen if the North blew up (no need for an attack on the South; no way to stop them), the Chosin Reservoir.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

I'll answer that with a question if may - the DMZ is one of the most militarised regions on earth, it has a concentration of a full division per mile and a half of frontage. OPLAN 5030 assumes that the NorKs would strike first so do you not think that the the US military will keep tabs on anything that moves in that area? I do! My "suspicion" is your armed forces know where these systems are located down to the twelth coordinate (.1 X .1 meter) because if I was in command I would! I'd want to know where these units hide positions are and the routes to their launch sites so that I can have my counter battery systems ready!

The sure sign of a Fool in war...thinking you have all the intel...

also...guess what...all the military you want does not make for instant destroying of all artilery...You think we have 1000 bombers flying over the targets 24 /7? How long did it take to take out all Artillery units in even Afghanistan or Iraq ? Both with FAR less then North Korea...and after months of buildup and planning for war...on our terms...This war could be started....with 1000 Artillery unites firing at same time ....DO you have a net to catch them all or something?

Ignorance of your enemys power, and over confidence in your own...You want to fight a war Bush W style it seems