The Approval Pool

[Dr.Who]

People who like football often engage in football pools trying to guess what will happen in the sport and when.

But this is a political forum. So I am just asking you all to make a political prediction.

Who can guess on which day President Obama's approval rating (which is sinking) will be lower than his disapproval rating (which is rising).

Here is the link to a graph that shows both ratings: (does anyone know how to post the actual graph)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Based on the trend and my understanding of what drives it I say the date will be January 5th.

Can anyone get closer? What do you think drives it?

 

[pocketfullofshells]

thats not fair, I can never win , since I bet never happens. Then again those polls are also a result of things that have nothing to do with Obama. Bush did not get 90 % approval ratings by doing anything...he got it out of people willing to support anything he did after sept 11....his 30% approval was threw hard work though.

 

[chestnut]

So Obama deserved the Nobel prize for doing nothing.. and Bush did not deserve his 90% approval rating during the 9/11 events.

How pathetic!!!!!!!

 

[Dr.Who]

thats not fair, I can never win , since I bet never happens. Then again those polls are also a result of things that have nothing to do with Obama. Bush did not get 90 % approval ratings by doing anything...he got it out of people willing to support anything he did after sept 11....his 30% approval was threw hard work though.

Events outside of a politicians control do sometimes effect their ratings. Virtually the only thing that has been happening lately has been the advancement of President Obamas' policies. His ratings are almost entirely the result of people not liking his policies.

In fact the only factor I can think of at all that he did not have control over was the increase in unemployment to over 10%. Of course if he had not said he was going to stop it from going over 10% it would not have effected him so. (I also think that he may have caused at least a little of the unemployment through policies that would make the recession less severe but also longer, like extending unemployment benefits to people who would now be less inclined to look for work)

 

[Dr.Who]

thats not fair, I can never win , since I bet never happens. Then again those polls are also a result of things that have nothing to do with Obama. Bush did not get 90 % approval ratings by doing anything...he got it out of people willing to support anything he did after sept 11....his 30% approval was threw hard work though.

OK new rule: if his approval ratings never cross before the next election you win. In other words Nov 2012.

But I think he will have the BIG X soon enough. After all he sets the record for the all time fastest fall to minority approval and in less than six months.
http://www.thebarackobamawatch.com/APPROVAL_RATINGS.html

 

[Pandora]

I want to play

but popeye and I are always fighting over what polls to go by. Are you going to pick a certian poll to follow?

I think you have the best date already so I will go with Jan 20th

What are we betting? what can we win?

 

[Dr.Who]

I want to play

but popeye and I are always fighting over what polls to go by. Are you going to pick a certian poll to follow?

I think you have the best date already so I will go with Jan 20th

What are we betting? what can we win?

We are using the RCP average linked in the OP.

If you think I had the best date then why didn't you pick a date only one day removed from mine? As it stands now if the actual date is between yours and mine then whoever is closer wins. But if you had picked Jan 6th then any date between the 6th and the 20th would have ensured that at least you beat me.

The stakes are a smug smile. In fact, to the winner any or all of us should post a congratulatory message including this icon: "" Is that the smug one? I never know.

 

[Pandora]

We are using the RCP average linked in the OP.

If you think I had the best date then why didn't you pick a date only one day removed from mine? As it stands now if the actual date is between yours and mine then whoever is closer wins. But if you had picked Jan 6th then any date between the 6th and the 20th would have ensured that at least you beat me.

The stakes are a smug smile. In fact, to the winner any or all of us should post a congratulatory message including this icon: "" Is that the smug one? I never know.

Well I didnt want to pick the day before or after you because I thought that would be rude. So I went with Jan 20th, his 360 days in office, I dont care who wins. I just like to bet. I even watched the civil war football game because I had made a bet on it, and I HATE football.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Events outside of a politicians control do sometimes effect their ratings. Virtually the only thing that has been happening lately has been the advancement of President Obamas' policies. His ratings are almost entirely the result of people not liking his policies.

In fact the only factor I can think of at all that he did not have control over was the increase in unemployment to over 10%. Of course if he had not said he was going to stop it from going over 10% it would not have effected him so. (I also think that he may have caused at least a little of the unemployment through policies that would make the recession less severe but also longer, like extending unemployment benefits to people who would now be less inclined to look for work)

so the fact that the war in Afgainstian is going poorly and he had to send 50,000 more troops since taking office....that is his fault?

And the Auto indsustry going in the crapper...his fault?

The we where already in a very very bad recession when he took over? his fault?

That he supports Health care Reform? you know thats part why he got elected right? the only people that matter that are mad at him for the most part, are those thinking he is not doing enough to get it threw....the realy mad ones that scream and hollar...did not vote for him, or where not paying attention.

And yes he did lose some support for not going after the Bush Co Torture stuff....many liberals are mad at him for that.


Now when he starts a war based on WMD and finds none, and a US city gets destroyed and he looks like he hardly noticed days later and says how well things are going there...when they are not...when we see huge collapses like under Bush..of the US Banks, Auto, Houseing.....all at same time let me know. fact is all 3 went under, in Bush's 8 years...Obama just has teh mess to deal with.

in 2 years when we are out of Iraq, the econ has come back some, and Afganistan is I hope winding down...we will see where he stands.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Well I didnt want to pick the day before or after you because I thought that would be rude. So I went with Jan 20th, his 360 days in office, I dont care who wins. I just like to bet. I even watched the civil war football game because I had made a bet on it, and I HATE football.

civil war football?

 

[Pandora]

civil war football?

Yeah,

doesnt every state have that?

I know little about football

but we have two main schools

UofO the ducks
and

OSU the beavers

they do civil war every year, this year who ever won got to go to the rose bowl

ducks won

is it rare to have two teams from one state that fight eachother every year?

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Yeah,

doesnt every state have that?

I know little about football

but we have two main schools

UofO the ducks
and

OSU the beavers

they do civil war every year, this year who ever won got to go to the rose bowl

ducks won

is it rare to have two teams from one state that fight eachother every year?

for some states yes, Minnesota has one big team,....U of M vs Saint Cloud or Duluth football..we be like Yankees vs a college team...Hockey we have a few big teams in state...those 3 plus Mankato ( to a smaller extent)

I figured maybe you where in the south and they did the blues and the grays or something lol....I know how the south loves to redo that war they lost.


also go DUcks...they gave us Chad OchoCinco...the man out to prove...the NFL is the No Fun League lol

 

[Pandora]

for some states yes, Minnesota has one big team,....U of M vs Saint Cloud or Duluth football..we be like Yankees vs a college team...Hockey we have a few big teams in state...those 3 plus Mankato ( to a smaller extent)

I figured maybe you where in the south and they did the blues and the grays or something lol....I know how the south loves to redo that war they lost.

I like hockey better than football but dont follow either of them

I just follow religon and politics

 

[Dr.Who]

so the fact that the war in Afgainstian is going poorly and he had to send 50,000 more troops since taking office....that is his fault?

Is Afghanistan going poorly? There is nothing poor about an endeavor being hard. He just needs to admit that it will be hard and then not appear to be ignoring his generals. I don't think any reasonable person is going to hold against him a war, going well or poor, that someone else started, unless they think he himself is responsible for it going poorly. So yes not listening to his generals and appearing to want nothing more than to leave without victory is his fault.

But according to a Gallup poll:

"Almost half of Americans said things were going well for the U.S. in Afghanistan in that initial 2006 poll, but these positive perceptions began to slip, reaching a low of 38% in a survey conducted in March of this year. In the current poll, views of the situation in Afghanistan have rebounded to 54%, the highest in Gallup's limited record."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121727/Americans-Upbeat-Progress-Iraq-Afghanistan.aspx

And the Auto indsustry going in the crapper...his fault?

If he had let it alone - no. But he bailed it out and moved it toward nationalization - so yes. His fault or not he bought the problem and he now owns it. If he did not want to own the problem then he should never have bought it and made claims that he would fix it. It makes people think that he is incapable of living up to any of his claims. And it is true that socialist policies will not.

The we where already in a very very bad recession when he took over? his fault?

By every measure before he took office it was a mild recession. Why would someone blame him for something that started before he took office. Unless it was his claims that he would fix it and that his policies would stop unemployment from going over 10% then it did. He made the claims that he could control the recession so now if it gets worse or rebounds he owns it too.

That he supports Health care Reform? you know thats part why he got elected right? the only people that matter that are mad at him for the most part, are those thinking he is not doing enough to get it threw....the realy mad ones that scream and hollar...did not vote for him, or where not paying attention.

More americans do not want reform than want it. Those who are mad at him include a minority that want it quicker but most would be mad at him because they are pubs (20%) or because they are independents who are moving away from reform quickly. Could hat have anything to do with the fact that the plans look nothing like what he promised he would support and they look everything like what he promised he would veto? Again it will be his own words that will sink him.

And yes he did lose some support for not going after the Bush Co Torture stuff....many liberals are mad at him for that.

Surely he knew that going after Bush for imaginary problems that only a percent of the libs believed, was never going to happen. If he did not say strongly enough before the election that he was not going to go after Bush then again his own fault for being unclear. If he did say he was going after Bush then it is really his fault.

Now when he starts a war based on WMD and finds none, and a US city gets destroyed and he looks like he hardly noticed days later and says how well things are going there...when they are not...when we see huge collapses like under Bush..of the US Banks, Auto, Houseing.....all at same time let me know. fact is all 3 went under, in Bush's 8 years...Obama just has teh mess to deal with.

I dont get what you are saying. Oh well.

in 2 years when we are out of Iraq, the econ has come back some, and Afganistan is I hope winding down...we will see where he stands.

Yep. I don't know about you but I will probably have forgotten about this thread by then. But we will see. Unless some fringe redneck refreshes the tree of liberty.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

yes in fact, we are lossing the war.

"McChrystal's congressional followed a particularly pointed assessment of the stakes in Afghanistan from his boss, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, on Monday.

"We are not winning, which means we are losing," Mullen told troops who will soon go to Afghanistan as part of the first wave of the surge. As the U.S. and its partners lose ground, insurgents gain new recruits, Mullen said. "That's why we need the 30,000" and the fast deployment calendar that Obama chose, Mullen told troops at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina."

we don't have the support needed there, and the taliban controls more of Afgainstan the the Afgan Goverment...thats called lossing a war. I am sorry if it hurts you to say it, but yes...the war is going bad, and had we not sent more troops we may have well have just went home and said we lost.


as for auto bial outs...lets see how good his approval number when the Auto industry fails...and all those people are out of work...americans are mad at 10% ...but I am sure would approve of 20%...

and I know very few people who would agree with your statement about this beind a mild recession.....No politicians, not many econ people, and most important....not anyone who walks threw my door at work ( less and less..with less and less)....

But I guess I should not be shocked, the recession is not that bad....but you also think we are winning in Afganistan....you live in bizarro world I guess