So I'm driving through Florida

[Aus22]

Dogtowner, I do not want to start the climate debate again. I will be dead before the change in sea level and hurricanes effect me .
But In am reading the book after shock. It is old but seems right about the forecast the American recession. The bubbles did collapse between 2007 and 2010.Housing prices fell and in some areas householders lost all the equity in their houses. Housing prices have not falling in Australia and are still rising.. . Partly due to risky loans they claim 25% of mortgages are in trouble in the USA . Australia avoided the recession because of high iron ore exports to China. Our population is growing up to 45% in Melbourne. The USA population since 1980 grew only 25% and personal income grew only 10%.
It is not surprising that the American economy suffer a recession. But aftershock starts that the next recession will be worst "But the coming Aftershock will be far more dangerous." "the fall of a multi bubble can be delayed but it cannot be reinflated. " It is not surprising the Florida is in trouble. It relies on discretionary spending of tourists. This is first to go if wages do not rise as they have not in recent years.
As this book is old (2009) I would like to now if the after shock has hit yet. Are housing prices continue to fall, Discretionary spending stop, The Dollar has become unsustainable, the Government Private Debt collapse
.

 

[Old_Trapper70]

Happy to report no change in sea level here. And a dirth of hurricanes.

He obviously does not live in the East Coast of the US.

https://www.livescience.com/24647-east-coast-sea-level-rise-accelerating.html

 

[dogtowner]

Dogtowner, I do not want to start the climate debate again. I will be dead before the change in sea level and hurricanes effect me .
But In am reading the book after shock. It is old but seems right about the forecast the American recession. The bubbles did collapse between 2007 and 2010.Housing prices fell and in some areas householders lost all the equity in their houses. Housing prices have not falling in Australia and are still rising.. . Partly due to risky loans they claim 25% of mortgages are in trouble in the USA . Australia avoided the recession because of high iron ore exports to China. Our population is growing up to 45% in Melbourne. The USA population since 1980 grew only 25% and personal income grew only 10%.
It is not surprising that the American economy suffer a recession. But aftershock starts that the next recession will be worst "But the coming Aftershock will be far more dangerous." "the fall of a multi bubble can be delayed but it cannot be reinflated. " It is not surprising the Florida is in trouble. It relies on discretionary spending of tourists. This is first to go if wages do not rise as they have not in recent years.
As this book is old (2009) I would like to now if the after shock has hit yet. Are housing prices continue to fall, Discretionary spending stop, The Dollar has become unsustainable, the Government Private Debt collapse
.

Florida is not the point, small towns that make up all the country between urban and rural is in the same situation nationwide. I just got a good look on this trip and it reminded me how trump came to resonate with so many.
There likely us economic trouble brewing thanks to Obama's wretched economic policies and it's going to be painful for cities and irresponsible states like illinois. But we will get through it thanks to positive economic forces winning the day again.
You brought up climate not me, don't expect me to let that foolishness to slide.

 

[Old_Trapper70]

Florida is not the point, small towns that make up all the country between urban and rural is in the same situation nationwide. I just got a good look on this trip and it reminded me how trump came to resonate with so many.
There likely us economic trouble brewing thanks to Obama's wretched economic policies and it's going to be painful for cities and irresponsible states like illinois. But we will get through it thanks to positive economic forces winning the day again.
You brought up climate not me, don't expect me to let that foolishness to slide.

So far ALL of the economic growth is due to the Obama plan, Trump has NOTHING to do wit it. He will take credit for it, and you will suckling like give it to him:

http://www.businessinsider.com/trum...th-in-emerging-and-developed-economies-2017-5

In fact, his policies could do more harm then good:

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/economist_joseph_stiglitz_trump_budget_20170524

But you will never see it.

 

[Aus22]

Why Must Americans blame everything on Obama or Trump. The economic policies in After shock started long before Obama. He did not change them. But has Trump change them. He promise to help the rust belt states. But has employment or wages increased? Keynesian economics says you must spend to improve the economy. Except for Defence spending has Trump increase spending. Are more jobs being created in the USA? Have there been any attempt to increase wages? GNP is not rising, Social security has been cut. Overall spending has been cut this will not stimulate the economy.

 

[Old_Trapper70]

Why Must Americans blame everything on Obama or Trump. The economic policies in After shock started long before Obama. He did not change them. But has Trump change them. He promise to help the rust belt states. But has employment or wages increased? Keynesian economics says you must spend to improve the economy. Except for Defence spending has Trump increase spending. Are more jobs being created in the USA? Have there been any attempt to increase wages? GNP is not rising, Social security has been cut. Overall spending has been cut this will not stimulate the economy.

Trumps budget has not been passed, and the healthcare debacle struggles on. Wages have increased a slight amount, and jobs are being created. However, these are occurring under the Obama budget. While you may argue that there has been no economic policy under Obama, and that seems to be your intent, you would be wrong. GDP has been growing slowly at 1-2% for several years now.

Not sure what your point is.

 

[dogtowner]

Why Must Americans blame everything on Obama or Trump. The economic policies in After shock started long before Obama. He did not change them. But has Trump change them. He promise to help the rust belt states. But has employment or wages increased? Keynesian economics says you must spend to improve the economy. Except for Defence spending has Trump increase spending. Are more jobs being created in the USA? Have there been any attempt to increase wages? GNP is not rising, Social security has been cut. Overall spending has been cut this will not stimulate the economy.

Yes jobs and income are up. Keyesnian economists are wrong. Their policies have never worked.

 

[Old_Trapper70]

Yes jobs and income are up. Keyesnian economists are wrong. Their policies have never worked.

Since every reputable economist acknowledges that Trump has NOTHING to do with the continued uptick in wages, and job growth, started under Obama, and Obama supported "Keynesian" economics. What people like you fail to grasp, as usual, is that even your gods, (Reagan, and Bush) were Keynesian's just as Trump will be:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/reagan-bush-and-obama-we-are-all-still-keynesians

"In the real world that rarely intrudes upon conservative economists and voters, both parties (and all Presidents) are Keynesians. Whenever the economy falters and private-sector spending declines, they use the tax-and-spending system to inject more demand into the economy. In 1981, Ronald Reagan did precisely this, slashing taxes and increasing defense spending. Between 2001 and 2003, George W. Bush followed the same script, introducing three sets of tax cuts and starting two wars.

In February, 2009, Barack Obama introduced his stimulus. The real policy debate isn’t about Keynesianism versus the free market, it is about magnitudes and techniques: How much stimulus is necessary? And how should it be divided between government spending and tax cuts?On both questions, Obama took the middle ground. His $800 billion stimulus program was smaller than many Keynesians, such as Christine Romer and Paul Krugman, wanted. (Romer reportedly pushed first for a $1.8 trillion package, then for $1.2 trillion.) Concentrated over a three-year period, it amounted to 1.1 per cent of G.D.P. in 2009, 2.4 per cent of G.D.P. in 2010, and 1.2 per cent of G.D.P. in 2011. So far, some $750 billion in stimulus money has been paid out: about $300 billion went to tax breaks for individuals and firms; roughly $235 billion was dispersed in the form of government contracts, grants, and loans; and another $225 billion was spent on entitlements—unemployment benefits, Medicaid, food stamps, and so on."

 

[Aus22]

It's been years since I study Economics and my books are out of date. But I think Keynes has been proved right in retrospect on his cure for the Great Depression. Of course new recessions might need a more modern adaption of Keynes. I suspect aftershock is one of this adaptions. I does call for more spending rather than just printing money as recent Presidents have done. It is true the GDP in the USA grew under both Obama and Trump but this was finance by printing money. The USA debt has grown and according to Aftershock it needs to be repaid
Old Trapper is right that the stimulus under Obama was too small. It is good to see he GDP is still growing under Trump. But without more employment and higher wages spending will not increase much. It is the poor who spend surplus income not the rich who are mainly savers.

 

[dogtowner]

It's been years since I study Economics and my books are out of date. But I think Keynes has been proved right in retrospect on his cure for the Great Depression. Of course new recessions might need a more modern adaption of Keynes. I suspect aftershock is one of this adaptions. I does call for more spending rather than just printing money as recent Presidents have done. It is true the GDP in the USA grew under both Obama and Trump but this was finance by printing money. The USA debt has grown and according to Aftershock it needs to be repaid
Old Trapper is right that the stimulus under Obama was too small. It is good to see he GDP is still growing under Trump. But without more employment and higher wages spending will not increase much. It is the poor who spend surplus income not the rich who are mainly savers.

Keynes theory did not cure the great depression, it lengthened it. WWII stopped it.
Debt is clearly out of control and it's high time Congress fixed that.
Wealthy don't save, they invest.

 

[Aus22]

Dogtowner

Keynes theory did not cure the great depression, it lengthened it. WWII stopped it.
Debt is clearly out of control and it's high time Congress fixed that.
Wealthy don't save, they invest.

Your comment about Keynes not cure the great depression is different from most economists. It is true that many of Keynes policies were not implemented in the USA because of opposition to regulations, Roosevelt New Deal had aspects of Keynes policies The New dealers sought in effect ,to increase private spending by redistributing income in favour of wages American Economic History Seymore Harris.
It is true that they no longer supported a balanced budget. At present America like most countries has a deficit. To remove this deficit will take time and is not essential to Keynes

 

[PLC1]

Paying down the debt would require cuts in spending and increases in taxes. No one gets elected by advocating that, no, the way to get elected is to promise lower taxes and more spending on whatever the voters think they want at the time. When the issue of the debt comes up, the pat answer is that lowering taxes will magically increase revenues and help to pay down the debt painlessly.

What will actually reduce the debt is inflation. The current dollar, compared to the pre OPEC dollar of 1970 is worth about 10 cents, maybe a bit less. Another round of inflation will reduce the debt as a percent of GDP, as the dollars that make up the debt will be worth less.

Of course, everyone still pays in one way or another. As it is today, the average worker has less purchasing power with our 10 cent dollars than they had back in '70, despite the higher numbers on the paychecks.

Inflation is quite low just now, so the debt appears to be growing. Once inflation starts in again, the debt will decrease, even as the numbers get bigger.

 

[dogtowner]

Dogtowner

Your comment about Keynes not cure the great depression is different from most economists. It is true that many of Keynes policies were not implemented in the USA because of opposition to regulations, Roosevelt New Deal had aspects of Keynes policies The New dealers sought in effect ,to increase private spending by redistributing income in favour of wages American Economic History Seymore Harris.
It is true that they no longer supported a balanced budget. At present America like most countries has a deficit. To remove this deficit will take time and is not essential to Keynes

Hmmm. So debt is bad ( I agree) but it doesn't matter. Seems to be somewhat incomplete as a theory

 

[dogtowner]

Paying down the debt would require cuts in spending and increases in taxes. No one gets elected by advocating that, no, the way to get elected is to promise lower taxes and more spending on whatever the voters think they want at the time. When the issue of the debt comes up, the pat answer is that lowering taxes will magically increase revenues and help to pay down the debt painlessly.

What will actually reduce the debt is inflation. The current dollar, compared to the pre OPEC dollar of 1970 is worth about 10 cents, maybe a bit less. Another round of inflation will reduce the debt as a percent of GDP, as the dollars that make up the debt will be worth less.

Of course, everyone still pays in one way or another. As it is today, the average worker has less purchasing power with our 10 cent dollars than they had back in '70, despite the higher numbers on the paychecks.

Inflation is quite low just now, so the debt appears to be growing. Once inflation starts in again, the debt will decrease, even as the numbers get bigger.

Percent of gdp does not lower debt at all.

 

[dogtowner]

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/213239/taxes-may-certain-tax-reform-not.aspx


Seems citizens are good with tax cuts, especially tax payers.