Iran warnes US to not return carrier to Persian Gulf

NATO but mainly those rather nearby. But more to the point it makes them the bully state Hussein always wished too be but we prevented from becoming.
Aside from Israel and the US, what are those nearby prepared to do in order to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons? Outside of crying to the UN and suggesting more (useless) sanctions, are any of those other nations willing to use military force? Because they all seem pretty quiet to me about the whole thing, as if they either don't care if Iran gets nukes or they think it's our job to stop it from happening.
 
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Aside from Israel and the US, what are those nearby prepared to do in order to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons? Outside of crying to the UN and suggesting more (useless) sanctions, are any of those other nations willing to use military force? Because they all seem pretty quiet to me about the whole thing, as if they either don't care if Iran gets nukes or they think it's our job to stop it from happening.

they're willing to look the other way. all they've ever done, apparently a muslim thing. beyond that there is not a lot they can do as relative strngth favors Iran and they will not fight if they don't believe they can easily win.
 
et al,

Sometimes, the implementation of US Policy is too militaristic. The constant and continuous use of military intervention is a grave commentary on our diplomatic skills. In the carrot and stick approach, we simply have to use the stick all too often because our carrot sucks (diplomatically speaking). War is an admission that our diplomatic efforts have failed. And we fail all to often.

And in only many cases, we have often forgot the lessons learned in the past: You can win every battle and still lose miss the military objective.

When the US uses military force to achieve its foreign policy, each action we take has certain consequences.

I think it is coming to a point where we have too many issues to consider when we jump to this stage. There are other options we should consider and other factors that come into play.

  • The Middle East and Persian Gulf states need to take a greater role and more responsibility in policing their own neighborhood. If the US is going to act as the World Police, then it needs to make that clear --- not only to the world --- but to the domestic audience. It is a very expensive proposition and one that can be extremely hazardous.
  • The US needs to adjust its Non-Proliferation program. Sovereignty actually means something. And the US military enforcement of the Non-Proliferation Agreements is not always the right solution. A sovereign nation like Iran still has the right to control its destiny; no matter how much we disagree or oppose their activity.
There has to be a discussion on the exercise of sovereignty and US Policy of intervention. What consequences is the US prepared to accept if it starts a war with Iran over Sanctions and Non-Proliferation. If the unintended consequences happen to be the destruction of gas and oil infrastructure in the Gulf region, in retaliation for Iran exercising sovereign rights, who is going to pay for that? What responsibility does the US have and how will it impact the world economy.
Let's be realistic. The national security decision making processes that took us to war in Iraq and Afghanistan have not been very predictive of the actual outcomes. Iraq, while not at war, is not the stable country we envisioned a decade ago. And in Iraq, the Prime Minister owes his current position to the Iranians; with al-Maliki now using the US trained military to arrest his opposition. Afghanistan is not much better. The government is in open negotiations with the Taliban. And as far as corruption goes - we've taught both countries how to better promote criminal activity in office. The chief anti-corruption officer in Afghanistan has resigned and the one in Iran is threatening to resign.
No, we cannot trust the leadership and decision making processes of Washington.
Most Respectfully,
R

If Republicans can't fix it with bombs or tax breaks...they are pretty much lost.
 
Pocket, what is your position on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons?

Dogtowner, you see Iran obtaining nuclear weapons as a threat to US and Israeli national security, correct? What other, if any, nations would a nuclear armed Iran pose a threat to national security?


thats its bad...but that any military should be a real last resort ( not a Bush last resort where you say that and burn any bridge that leads to anything other then it) I don't cavalierly suggest , just bomb them...I don't pretend it would be easy..cheap and not cost a large amount of lives...and have a horrible impact on our econ.

the best choice is...just what we are doing..hard Sanctions...and covert actions...one nice thing we have is...the middle east goverments don't want Iran to have it as well...but they also can't be seen siding with the US against a Arab nation so easy...Iran can't look like it can't deffend itself and wants to project itself as strong...to say the US Sabbataged something...means they have to act to strike back...but admiting also means they are not as strong as they project..meaning they may play it off as a "accident" once they see the arab world is not backing them....in time of course they will hit back on Israel with small attacks to draw them in ( if they go in, its all sides can change) but Israel will back keep it toned down in its responce due to the Fact that the US would hold them as payment for taking keeping Iran from the bomb...

and the biggest part...Push hard to turn Iran in on itself. Our most powerful weapon we have ....is the Youth Movement of Iran.. thats the place where change can come without war.
 
dogtowner, et al,

Sometimes, it is best to assess the ramifications.

Rocco sounds like you are OK with Iran being a nuclear combatant. I'm not and I do believe there are some matters such as this that are just too important to leave to diplomacy. Diplomacy has been under way with Iran for quite some time and have been less than fruitless as Iran has no intention to stop.

(PREFACE)

If you gave Iran the amount of fissile material the US would use in one (1) - 1 Megaton devices (a 50 million degree fireball about a mile diameter, a 20+ second long radiation burst that would kill most everyone within 6 miles, and producing significant damage up to 12 miles away) how long would it take for Iran to design, test, build a guidance system, and assemble a viable delivery system?

A standard tactical warhead, say the W-88 on the Trident, is about 100 kiloton. Bomb Effects computer: http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Bombcalc?yield=100&yunit=1&range=3&runit=1&rotate=0&imsize=800

(COMMENT)

The use of a weapon by the Iranians would be the end of their civilization, and they know it. But Iran might not actually have the chance to use such a weapon. Once it is known, or believed that, Iran has such a weapon - its threats become much more credible. In having a credible threat, it has no leeway in making such threats. Once the threat is issued, the receiver of the threat might very will preemptively strike.

The US has 18 Ohio Class submarines, 14 of which are armed with up to 24 Trident IISLBMs. One Ohio Class Submarine could take out a third of the Population of Iran. Three such submarine could destroy every major city in Iran with a population of 100,000 or more. While it would not be genocide, it would be the end of Iran as it has been known since it was capture by Alexander the Great 2600 years ago.

I don't believe the Iranians have any intention of developing a tactical nuclear device. It would inhibit their ability to make sensational threats and divest themselves of a grand bargaining chip that can be used to extort more lucrative opportunities. It would place them in greater peril. They could never use the weapon; yet face the enormous costs associated with it. Yet, it would reduce the greater leverage they have without the weapon.

I don't believe the prestige of having the weapon serves Iran's purposes. But even if they opt to build such a weapon, the need for the continued presence of US Forces in the Region would on increase in the eyes of the other Persian Gulf Nations. It would result in an outcome unfavorable to Iran.

It appears that Iran is attempting to intimidate the Regional Neighborhood in the threat of pursuing a weapon. But they know that once they have the weapon, they could no longer be as vocal and threatening as they have in the past. One threat to destroy, say Israel, would be sufficient cause for a preemptive strike of a devastating nature.

(EPILOGUE)

Earlier, I stated that if we had to go to war, we would have to totally annihilate Iran. I still believe that. I believe that we would have to take them back to the capacity of the 6th Century. Anything less would afford them the opportunity to develop a retaliation within a generation. If they understand this and believe this, concluding that it would be the end of a viable Islamic state, then they will avoid that potential outcome. If they believe that the world (ie the US) will not devastate their culture, then they will proceed with the critical design process. It is imperative that we offer them a choice.

  • Build the weapon and keep your mouth shut; or not build a weapon and continue your present course - mouth and all.
  • But with the weapon, you cannot issue any more threats.

Most Respectfully,
R

 
dogtowner, et al,

Sometimes, it is best to assess the ramifications.

(PREFACE)

If you gave Iran the amount of fissile material the US would use in one (1) - 1 Megaton devices (a 50 million degree fireball about a mile diameter, a 20+ second long radiation burst that would kill most everyone within 6 miles, and producing significant damage up to 12 miles away) how long would it take for Iran to design, test, build a guidance system, and assemble a viable delivery system?

A standard tactical warhead, say the W-88 on the Trident, is about 100 kiloton. Bomb Effects computer: http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Bombcalc?yield=100&yunit=1&range=3&runit=1&rotate=0&imsize=800

(COMMENT)

The use of a weapon by the Iranians would be the end of their civilization, and they know it. But Iran might not actually have the chance to use such a weapon. Once it is known, or believed that, Iran has such a weapon - its threats become much more credible. In having a credible threat, it has no leeway in making such threats. Once the threat is issued, the receiver of the threat might very will preemptively strike.

The US has 18 Ohio Class submarines, 14 of which are armed with up to 24 Trident IISLBMs. One Ohio Class Submarine could take out a third of the Population of Iran. Three such submarine could destroy every major city in Iran with a population of 100,000 or more. While it would not be genocide, it would be the end of Iran as it has been known since it was capture by Alexander the Great 2600 years ago.

I don't believe the Iranians have any intention of developing a tactical nuclear device. It would inhibit their ability to make sensational threats and divest themselves of a grand bargaining chip that can be used to extort more lucrative opportunities. It would place them in greater peril. They could never use the weapon; yet face the enormous costs associated with it. Yet, it would reduce the greater leverage they have without the weapon.

I don't believe the prestige of having the weapon serves Iran's purposes. But even if they opt to build such a weapon, the need for the continued presence of US Forces in the Region would on increase in the eyes of the other Persian Gulf Nations. It would result in an outcome unfavorable to Iran.

It appears that Iran is attempting to intimidate the Regional Neighborhood in the threat of pursuing a weapon. But they know that once they have the weapon, they could no longer be as vocal and threatening as they have in the past. One threat to destroy, say Israel, would be sufficient cause for a preemptive strike of a devastating nature.

(EPILOGUE)

Earlier, I stated that if we had to go to war, we would have to totally annihilate Iran. I still believe that. I believe that we would have to take them back to the capacity of the 6th Century. Anything less would afford them the opportunity to develop a retaliation within a generation. If they understand this and believe this, concluding that it would be the end of a viable Islamic state, then they will avoid that potential outcome. If they believe that the world (ie the US) will not devastate their culture, then they will proceed with the critical design process. It is imperative that we offer them a choice.

  • Build the weapon and keep your mouth shut; or not build a weapon and continue your present course - mouth and all.
  • But with the weapon, you cannot issue any more threats.
Most Respectfully,
R


well they have vividly demonstrated they are quite happy expending the nation's wealth on this at the expense of everything else and I don't agree that:
a) we need nuke cities
b) they are above (attempting to) use it
c) they are as logical or smart as you give them credit for being
 
That didn't work when we used that strategy against the Norks, why do you believe that same strategy will be successful in Iran?

do you believe a full all out war in the middle east will?...

also Iran is not North Korea...Iran actually has a semblance of Democracy and pro western culture in it. We also have better intel there. But if you have anything other then War, lets here it.
 
et al,

Yes, that is a thought. But, no covert action in the Middle East/Persian Gulf has ever resulted in a 100 year old stable Regime (or even a 50 year old stable Regime)..

Whether you talk about Iran and the (US supported) Shah --- or Iraq (and the US Ba'ath Party Support). The outcomes tend to break down rather quickly and comeback to haunt us.

We really had the ts crossed on what was happening, James Critchfield, then head of the CIA in the Middle East, told us. We regarded it as a great victory. Iraqi participants later confirmed American involvement. We came to power on a CIA train, admitted Ali Saleh Sa'adi, the Baath Party secretary general who was about to institute an unprecedented reign of terror. .. ... .. ... .. ... .. ... Multiple SOURCEs: ... http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/saddam/interviews/critchfield.html http://www.mafhoum.com/press2/cia276_files/home_files/azpolitics_03.htm ... http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/51/217.html ...

The idea that covert action is the most effective means of inducing change is a fallacy "the best choice is...just what we are doing..hard Sanctions...and covert actions..." It is believed by people that don't understand the risk and dangers; even when the plan is successful. While it has worked in a few instances (not many) outside the Middle East/Persian Gulf Region, even those are marginal today.

Sanctions have just as dubious a reputation for effectiveness. Remember the sanctions on Iraq were claimed to have been ineffectual. Sanctions on Cuba, Somalia, where ever. These measures have mixed results.

Neither sanctions or covert action is a strategy in and by themselves. Neither are that dependable.

Most Respectfully,
R
 
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Neither sanctions or covert action is a strategy in and by themselves. Neither are that dependable.

been at both for some time and no fruit.

they want the bomb and learned from Hussein that it cannot be bought and so have spent heavily to make it themselves. they won't quit.
 
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