Democrats are truly the blame for rising gas prices

[PLC1]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said... My point is just that looking at the market the way that it is, I am not convinced currently that oil is a bad investment.

Oil would most likely be a good investment just now, but, like any other investment in a single commodity, I wouldn't want to invest more than I could afford to lose, just in case I was wrong.

 

[BigRob]

Oil would most likely be a good investment just now, but, like any other investment in a single commodity, I wouldn't want to invest more than I could afford to lose, just in case I was wrong.

Well that should go without saying... you should never invest anything you cannot afford to lose.

 

[steveox]

Gas will be cheap again when Sarah Palin becomes president of the United States in 2012.By then Democrats will lose more seats and Senate will become Republican.

 

[PLC1]

Gas will be cheap again when Sarah Palin becomes president of the United States in 2012.By then Democrats will lose more seats and Senate will become Republican.

Sure, Palin will save the day.

That is, unless these guys do it first:

 

[nobull]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you said... My point is just that looking at the market the way that it is, I am not convinced currently that oil is a bad investment.

However I still maintain that gold will collapse as the evidence of a stronger global economy builds and oil speculation will back down to about $70. Oil is a target so it has very limited upside. That is why I am short oil. Eventually it will tank.

Look at Natural Gas. In spite of the glut, the producers just keep making more. There simply is no demand for the oil and gas that allows oil to remain high. So speculators have to be getting nervous. Even if you were to note a 2.2% increase in global demand, the USA demand is flat and inventories have increased 5% over the same period to a five year high. Even if you thought in your wildest dreams that the 2% increase in demand was real, that does not justify the price of oil moving from $70 to $100. That is a 42% increase for a 2% increase in demand. So its not real and heads will get lopped off.

This is a big trend. These markets will not go down with this game afoot and crying in your beer that the tea leaves an technical analysis are delivering the right answers and the markets are all wrong, is like Al Gore claiming CO2 increases in the earths atmosphere before the earth heats up not after it heats up and the water vapor can absorb a tad more oxygen and CO2.


just my opinion
Doug

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Well that should go without saying... you should never invest anything you cannot afford to lose.

unless your a big bank of course

 

[BigRob]

unless your a big bank of course

Touche.

 

[BigRob]

However I still maintain that gold will collapse as the evidence of a stronger global economy builds and oil speculation will back down to about $70. Oil is a target so it has very limited upside. That is why I am short oil. Eventually it will tank.

Look at Natural Gas. In spite of the glut, the producers just keep making more. There simply is no demand for the oil and gas that allows oil to remain high. So speculators have to be getting nervous. Even if you were to note a 2.2% increase in global demand, the USA demand is flat and inventories have increased 5% over the same period to a five year high. Even if you thought in your wildest dreams that the 2% increase in demand was real, that does not justify the price of oil moving from $70 to $100. That is a 42% increase for a 2% increase in demand. So its not real and heads will get lopped off.

This is a big trend. These markets will not go down with this game afoot and crying in your beer that the tea leaves an technical analysis are delivering the right answers and the markets are all wrong, is like Al Gore claiming CO2 increases in the earths atmosphere before the earth heats up not after it heats up and the water vapor can absorb a tad more oxygen and CO2.

just my opinion
Doug

I certainly don't dispute that oil is overvalued, but I don't think that automatically makes it a bad short term investment. I agree that eventually we will see some sharp declines as speculators start to leave the market, but I still think there is a chance to make some money on oil before that takes place, which is all I meant by it is still a "good investment" in my mind.

 

[VincentHaw]

Big Rob..
The declamping of oil from fundamentals makes it a gambling casino with house rules.

Part of the oil path problem is the gov lack of any energy policy. Anytime gov starts taxing to fix the price of some commodity higher, it wrecks the dynamics of the market. Corn is a great example in the gov quest to make ethanol. Ethanol creates a 55000 btu deficit for every acre raised for ethanol. That is the diesel used to grow the corn is greater than the production of ethanol by BTUs.

Wind mills solar panels all have negative BTU profiles. They call them renewable sources but the lesson learned from Germany and Spain is that the wind turbines fell far short of their productive life expectancy and had to be replaced or repaired losing all of the projected cost benefits of renewable energy. Apparently nobody in the Obama administration does math.

We have gluts in oil, gluts in natural gas, gluts in coal and the obama administration can't get it together enough to see that the greatest stimulus to the economy would be cheap energy, not these adventures in solar panel tax credits.

Cheap energy is what makes businesses expand. Energy in China is cheaper than the USA. China's stimulus plan included 34 nuclear power plant and they have 300 more on the drawing boards.

Cheap energy makes consumers feel like spending.

So when policies by gov raise the price of energy, don't do math, and incentivize BTU inefficient technologies, the economy contracts. The hype explodes of course and companies start wasting money chasing gov tax credits. We need nuclear power plants not wind turbine farms.

Obama knows very little about the physical world, in fact, to me he doesn't seem to know much about anything. He is the wrong person at the wrong time... But I would say that McCain would have been equally lost and inept. This is the same old story. It takes a lot of brains to build a nuclear weapon but how much brains does it take when you turn their control over to the politicians, the intellectual bottom rung?

I can tell you that the present oil pump was not beneficial to the Christmas consumer but I also believe this is just a pump and dump and will be short lived. But this gives hedges a great opportunity to short retail if they can push oil up and kill the consumer.

I always compare petroleum equivalents and we have a big gap between Natural Gas and Oil.... silver and Gold too. For me this would place oil at about $46 bbl. Of course that would be wonderful for both business and the consumer. But the Obama administration is conceptually out to lunch and they don't do math very well.

best regards
dou

Well I still believe we need to concentrate on renewable sources of energy..We need to improve the efficiency of these sources to fulfill our power demands..

 

[VincentHaw]

Well I still believe we need to concentrate on renewable sources of solar energy..We need to improve the efficiency of these sources to fulfill our power demands..

What guys you think about solar energy..

 

[dogtowner]

What guys you think about solar energy..

Works part of the time.
Tidal works all of the time.