Little-Acorn
Well-Known Member
Remember all those polls where the pollsters sampled 20%, 30%, even 40% more Democrats than Republicans?
They were polls which would turn out accurate only if 20%, 30%, or 40% more Democrats than Republicans, actually voted on Nov. 6, 2012.
But the few polls that bothered to count, found that the number of Dems and Republicans is nearly equal this year, in the U.S.
And it gets worse: US Today has found that many Democrats are dispirited about their candidates this year, in sharp contrast to Republicans who are very enthusiastic about voting this year.
Most polls have found, to no one's surprise, that most Democrats who will vote, will do so for Obama; and most Republicans who vote will favor Romney.
But how many of each will actually vote on Nov. 6, 2012?
In significant contrast to the lopsided polls that call up to 40% more Dems than Republicans, the actual number indicate that Republicans will vote in equal or greater numbers than Democrats. Far more people are registering as Republicans than Democrats, and the enthusiasm of the Republicans is far outstripping that of the the relatively dispirited Democrats.
If each party votes in proportion to their numbers, Romney will come out with a slight edge.
And if more Democrats stay home and don't bother voting on Nov. 6, as their dispiritedness seems to indicate many of them will, then Romney could wind up with a BIG victory.
"May you live in interesting times." - ancient Chinese curse
Withe the inexplicable way the polls are skewing their results toward Obama - a trend they know they can't enforce in November - we are living in VERY interesting times.
And the evening of Nov. 6 promises to be the most interesting of all, when a "poll" is taken that (at last) pollsters cannot load with 40% more Democrats.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/09/29/poll-obama-romney-gallup/1601125/
Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.
Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than in 2008, although Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic.
---------------------------------------------
(You have to scroll way down in the linked article. For some reason, USA Today buried the above paragraphs very deep in the text.)
They were polls which would turn out accurate only if 20%, 30%, or 40% more Democrats than Republicans, actually voted on Nov. 6, 2012.
But the few polls that bothered to count, found that the number of Dems and Republicans is nearly equal this year, in the U.S.
And it gets worse: US Today has found that many Democrats are dispirited about their candidates this year, in sharp contrast to Republicans who are very enthusiastic about voting this year.
Most polls have found, to no one's surprise, that most Democrats who will vote, will do so for Obama; and most Republicans who vote will favor Romney.
But how many of each will actually vote on Nov. 6, 2012?
In significant contrast to the lopsided polls that call up to 40% more Dems than Republicans, the actual number indicate that Republicans will vote in equal or greater numbers than Democrats. Far more people are registering as Republicans than Democrats, and the enthusiasm of the Republicans is far outstripping that of the the relatively dispirited Democrats.
If each party votes in proportion to their numbers, Romney will come out with a slight edge.
And if more Democrats stay home and don't bother voting on Nov. 6, as their dispiritedness seems to indicate many of them will, then Romney could wind up with a BIG victory.
"May you live in interesting times." - ancient Chinese curse
Withe the inexplicable way the polls are skewing their results toward Obama - a trend they know they can't enforce in November - we are living in VERY interesting times.
And the evening of Nov. 6 promises to be the most interesting of all, when a "poll" is taken that (at last) pollsters cannot load with 40% more Democrats.
--------------------------------------------
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/09/29/poll-obama-romney-gallup/1601125/
Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.
Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than in 2008, although Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic.
---------------------------------------------
(You have to scroll way down in the linked article. For some reason, USA Today buried the above paragraphs very deep in the text.)