Yesterday, Newt Gingrich's campaign disintegrated. The former Speaker of the House says he is still in the race. His staff won't be going with him. This effectively ends Newt's campaign unless he can give a stellar performance at Monday night's New Hampshire debate and quickly rebuild.
This provides an opening for Governor Rick Perry to enter the race for the White House. Most outside observers expect him to get in. Should Perry do so, you can be assured that the Bushies, most of whom detest Perry, would work to undermine him at every turn. Likewise, the Democrats would work as hard as they could to paint Rick Perry as the second coming of George W. Bush.
In related news, Governor Mitt Romney is bailing on the Ames, Iowa straw poll. In 2008, Romney won the straw poll, but lost the state. That should be an indication for all the other candidates to not put too much stock in it.
All this news shakes up the Republican field. Most people have been waiting to see who the anti-Romney would be to Mitt Romney's candidacy. An entry by Rick Perry would delay the front runner for that title. It would keep money on the sidelines. That keeps Mitt Romney at the top for a little while longer.
Then there is Rudy Giuliani, whose entry into the race may come in the next few weeks. If he gets in, polls suggest he jumps ahead of Romney, but I do not consider him a viable candidate long term. That puts the spotlight on two people: Rick Perry and Tim Pawlenty.
A year from now, it would not surprise me if that was the ticket.
— Erick Erickson
