An analysis by Dmitri Alperovitch shows that there are various signals, that this time it's going to be serious:
- Build up of troops on Ukraines borders
- Increased cyber intrusions
- Diplomatic ultimatums with demands that they know, NATO cant fullfill. And making them public.
- Rethoric signals, e.g. by Rudenko: "The matter is not about fear, the matter is that our neighbors, not only Ukraine, have reached a kind of a boiling point, which really forces us to take certain radical steps, at least, we say that we are prepared to think in a different way" Source: https://tass.com/politics/1378025
- Talking about provocations by the US ("Russian Defence Minister Shoygu has said that an American PMC is preparing a provocation using chemical components in Donbas")
Reasons for the invasion:
- Fear of shifting powers between Kiev and Donbas separatists
- Concern about NATO expansion
- Coalition of pro western states near the border of Russia
- Putins talk about a 4-5 minutes flight of a missile from Ukraine to Moscow (imagine Russian missiles in Cuba or Mexico!)
- Timing - USA is distracted (Covid, China), Europe is dependant on Russian gas in the winter
Full read:
In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) December 21, 2021
