Reuters/Ipsos: Obama ahead 48%-45%... after asking ***30%*** more Dems than Repubs

[Little-Acorn]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11965

Yes, another hugely skewed "poll" where they blithely asked 572 Democrats, and only 439 Republicans. That's 30% more Dems than Repubs.

Surprise, surprise! Obama came out ahead!

.....barely.

48% of "likely" voters would vote for Obama.
45% would vote for Romney.

or...

47% or "registered" voters would vote for Obama.
43% would vote for Romney.

Yes, after asking 30% more Democrats than Republicans, Obama gets a slight edge.

Does anybody think that 30% more Democrats will vote on Nov. 6, 2012, than Republicans?

-----------------------------

Keep in mind the past turnout patterns:

Year. . . Dem/GOP voters (million)
2006 . . . . 42/36 . . . non-Presidential election, after too much Repub govt spending
2008 . . . . 69/60 . . . Presidential election, more high Repub spending, huge enthusiasm for unknown Obama
2010 . . . . 36/41 . . . non-Presidential election, after HUGE Dem spending and Obama's agenda is revealed
2012 . . . . ??/??. . . . Presidential election, after Americans find even more Obama agenda while Repubs fight tax and spending hikes
.

Turnout percentages were about the same in 2006 and 2008, and situations were roughly the same.

Situations are also roughly the same between 2010 and 2012. Is there any reason that turnout percentages for each party, should be significantly different between 2010 and 2012?

CONCLUSION: November 2012 is going to be a blowout. And all the ridiculously skewed polls the media can produce, won't change what's coming.

.

 

[dogtowner]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11965

Yes, another hugely skewed "poll" where they blithely asked 572 Democrats, and only 439 Republicans. That's 30% more Dems than Repubs.

Surprise, surprise! Obama came out ahead!

.....barely.

48% of "likely" voters would vote for Obama.
45% would vote for Romney.

or...

47% or "registered" voters would vote for Obama.
43% would vote for Romney.

Yes, after asking 30% more Democrats than Republicans, Obama gets a slight edge.

Does anybody think that 30% more Democrats will vote on Nov. 6, 2012, than Republicans?

-----------------------------

Keep in mind the past turnout patterns:

Year. . . Dem/GOP voters (million)
2006 . . . . 42/36 . . . non-Presidential election, after too much Repub govt spending
2008 . . . . 69/60 . . . Presidential election, more high Repub spending, huge enthusiasm for unknown Obama
2010 . . . . 36/41 . . . non-Presidential election, after HUGE Dem spending and Obama's agenda is revealed
2012 . . . . ??/??. . . . Presidential election, after Americans find even more Obama agenda while Repubs fight tax and spending hikes
.

Turnout percentages were about the same in 2006 and 2008, and situations were roughly the same.

Situations are also roughly the same between 2010 and 2012. Is there any reason that turnout percentages for each party, should be significantly different between 2010 and 2012?

CONCLUSION: November 2012 is going to be a blowout. And all the ridiculously skewed polls the media can produce, won't change what's coming.

.

they know it and so there are these sorts of polls

 

[Little-Acorn]

I've started checking every poll I see, for this kind of thing. Sometimes they don't list their sample distributions. Given what they are doing, I don't blame them. It's hard to lie when you have to tell the truth somewhere in there.

 

[Cruella]

I've started checking every poll I see, for this kind of thing. Sometimes they don't list their sample distributions. Given what they are doing, I don't blame them. It's hard to lie when you have to tell the truth somewhere in there.

Part of their reasoning behind oversampling of Democrats is based on the last election '08. They think they are going to get the same turn-out and that no one will defect to the other side.

 

[Little-Acorn]

Part of their reasoning behind oversampling of Democrats is based on the last election '08. They think they are going to get the same turn-out and that no one will defect to the other side.

Which is why I listed the turnouts of elections SINCE then. To show that basing expectations on the '08 elections, is not only wrong, but ludicrous.

BTW, does this mean that 30% more Democrats than Republicans, voted in 2008?

I think not.

The media has NO reason to oversample Dems 30%... except to fool people into believing something the media know is not true.

 

[Cruella]

The media has NO reason to oversample Dems 30%... except to fool people into believing something the media know is not true.

I suppose there is some psychological effect on voters.