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Back in 2014, Russia had a better chance to invade and occupy more of Ukraine beyond Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Then, the Ukrainian military had almost no effective fighting capacity: under trained and poorly equipped, morale was at an all-time low. The majority of senior and middle ranking Ukrainian officers were the product of Soviet defence educational establishments, many with at best neutral sentiments towards Moscow, and some willing to change sides (as happened in Crimea).

In 2022, the situation is different. The Ukrainian army has been recalibrated to confront a hostile Russia. The officer corps was cleansed of pro-Russia sympathisers. Individual and unit training as well as exercise activity intensified, with some equipment acquired. Many soldiers have gained combat experience in eastern Ukraine.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/2022-not-2014-what-holds-back-russia-ukraine[/URL]

<blockquote data-quote="pjmret" data-source="post: 302505" data-attributes="member: 5598">Back in 2014, Russia had a better chance to invade and occupy more of Ukraine beyond Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Then, the Ukrainian military had almost no effective fighting capacity: under trained and poorly equipped, morale was at an all-time low. The majority of senior and middle ranking Ukrainian officers were the product of Soviet defence educational establishments, many with at best neutral sentiments towards Moscow, and some willing to change sides (as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-annexation-idUSKBN1A90G0" target="_blank">happened</a> in Crimea).In 2022, the situation is different. <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-ukraines-reformed-military-ready-to-repel-a-new-russian-invasion/" target="_blank">The Ukrainian army has been recalibrated</a> to confront a hostile Russia. The officer corps was cleansed of pro-Russia sympathisers. Individual and unit training as well as exercise activity intensified, with some equipment acquired. Many soldiers have gained combat experience in eastern Ukraine.[URL unfurl=&quot;true&quot;]https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/2022-not-2014-what-holds-back-russia-ukraine[/URL]</blockquote>

[QUOTE="pjmret, post: 302505, member: 5598"] Back in 2014, Russia had a better chance to invade and occupy more of Ukraine beyond Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Then, the Ukrainian military had almost no effective fighting capacity: under trained and poorly equipped, morale was at an all-time low. The majority of senior and middle ranking Ukrainian officers were the product of Soviet defence educational establishments, many with at best neutral sentiments towards Moscow, and some willing to change sides (as [URL='https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-annexation-idUSKBN1A90G0']happened[/URL] in Crimea). In 2022, the situation is different. [URL='https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-ukraines-reformed-military-ready-to-repel-a-new-russian-invasion/']The Ukrainian army has been recalibrated[/URL] to confront a hostile Russia. The officer corps was cleansed of pro-Russia sympathisers. Individual and unit training as well as exercise activity intensified, with some equipment acquired. Many soldiers have gained combat experience in eastern Ukraine. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/2022-not-2014-what-holds-back-russia-ukraine[/URL] [/QUOTE]

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