How expensive will Obamacare be if enacted?

Dr.Who

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Well here is just ONE more part of it that is found to be more expensive than "predicted". And I use that word in quotes because ANYONE could have predicted this and it was intentionally left out.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...itchq-adds-50-billion-per-year-to-the-deficit

The true costs of ObamaCare continue to rise, as budget projections under the healthcare law are being understated by as much as $50 billion per year, according to a new report from Cornell economist Richard Burkhauser and his colleagues from Cornell and Indiana University. This alarming revelation is due to official budget forecasts that neglect to account for employees’ spouses and children — which could result in hundreds of billions more in taxpayers’ dollars over the next 10 years.

"The Congressional Budget Office has never done a cost-estimate of this [because] they were expressly told to do their modeling on single [person] coverage," Burkhauser alleged. "A very large number of workers" will have access to federal subsidies, "dramatically increasing the cost" of ObamaCare.

The Daily Caller reported:

In May a congressional committee set the accounting rules that determine who will qualify for federal health care subsidies under the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. When the committee handed down the rules to the Congressional Budget Office, its formula excluded the health care costs of millions of workers’ spouses and children. The result was a final estimate for 2010 that hides those costs.

The contention lies with the "firewall" provision of the healthcare law, which applies to employer-based insurance plans with premiums totaling more than 9.5 percent of an employee’s income. Any health plan with premiums surpassing this amount would be deemed "unaffordable," allowing the worker to obtain subsidized health insurance on the federal exchanges.

On May 4, 2010, the Joint Committee on Taxation advised the Congressional Budget Office to omit family members from its projections when determining whether employees pay more than 9.5 percent of their income for health insurance. Daniel Graulich, on the Heritage Foundation’s blog, explained further:

Obamacare proponents argued that the premium for a family plan — higher than an individual plan — could be used in determining whether employer-sponsored insurance is "affordable," but the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) scored the bill using individual premiums only. If a worker was offered an "affordable" individual policy (regardless of how "affordable" the family policy was), JCT figured, he would buy insurance from the employer, because he would still have to comply with the individual mandate and wouldn’t have access to the generous premium subsidies in the health insurance exchanges.

To prevent middle-class families from accruing high insurance costs, or be subjected to penalties for not purchasing health insurance, Graulich predicts that the Department of Health and Human Services will "interpret the law to include the price of family coverage in its application of the firewall provision." This plays right in to Burkhauser’s research. A family policy costing more than 9.5 percent of an employee’s income would prompt eligibility for the entire family to be subsidized.

Burkhauser’s research concluded that because of the law’s skewed incentives, an additional 12.7 percent of all workers would benefit from adding themselves and their families to the federal exchanges. Burkhauser argues that the arrangement of ObamaCare breeds questionable motives, because employers and employees may rearrange compensation to benefit from federal subsidies.

For example, he explained, an employee can ask his employer to raise the price of company-provided insurance in exchange for an equal increase in salary. In many cases, that would boost the share of his income spent on health insurance to a percentage above the 9.5 percent threshold.

Such an arrangement, Burkhauser added, would make the employee, his spouse, and his children all eligible for federal health care subsidies while enriching both the employer and employee — even after the Treasury Department collects fines from U.S. workers.

As government spending continues to climb, and discussions over the federal budget unfold, this startling new discovery may bring ObamaCare to the top of the fiscal agenda. "This study shows yet another way that ObamaCare’s cost will be much, much higher than supporters led the American people to believe," suggested Michael Cannon of the Cato Institute. "Anyone who’s serious about the federal debt should make ObamaCare’s trillion-plus dollars of new entitlement spending the first item to put on the chopping block."
 
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How many people will get poor care or no care if its not enacted?

How many people have to die each year from last of insurance before the right cares?

Zero people who want care will get no care as in this country 100% of the people can get care at a moments notice. There is not a single solitary person in this country who cannot get care.

How many will get poor care? As of right now the only people who get poor care are those on medicaid.

How many will die from last of insurance? Did you mean loss of insurance? Not a one. Any single person who loses their insurance has several other option including getting care from public aid. Will they die because they are on public aid instead of on an insurance plan that they once had? Maybe but the blame would not be with the lack of insurance but with the poor quality of care from public aid.
 
Obamacare is already enacted, so there is no need to wonder. So far, according to Forbes Magazine, Obamacare is making a difference, and proving to be cheaper than expected.

"More Solid Proof That Obamacare Is Working:"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2011/05/23/more-solid-proof-that-obamacare-is-working/

It has been struck down by a court. Until that decision is appealed and overturned it should not be enacted. Enacting the law would be criminal. Is that what you are saying our president is doing?

It will be a horrible thing for our country, probably worse than any other law written. When everyone realized how bad it is (as a majority of our country does now) it may be harder to repeal it. But even the pain of repealing a law that has been established for a few years will not stop people from doing so.
 
How much more expensive health care will be is a matter of speculation. On the one hand, there will be a lot of people who will qualify for subsidized coverage. On the other, there will be less necessity to charge an arm and a leg to make up for people who don't have coverage.

One thing for sure: The cost of health care will continue to increase, as the so called "Obamacare" didn't do anything to control costs. Another thing for sure: The opponents of Obamacare will attribute all increases to that program and ignore the fact that the cost of health care has been going up by double digits every year for over a decade now.
 
Another thing for sure: The opponents of Obamacare will attribute all increases to that program and ignore the fact that the cost of health care has been going up by double digits every year for over a decade now.

This opponent of Obamacare attributes the lions share of rising HC costs to government intervention. Government actions have distorted the market, and continue to make the distortion worse with every "fix" they offer, and rising costs are the result.
 
This opponent of Obamacare attributes the lions share of rising HC costs to government intervention. Government actions have distorted the market, and continue to make the distortion worse with every "fix" they offer, and rising costs are the result.

So, you don't think that masking the real cost by insurance coverage is a factor?
 
So, you don't think that masking the real cost by insurance coverage is a factor?

Where did I say that? Government intervention is the primary factor, that doesn't mean there aren't a multitude of other factors at play. Without any government intervention, HC costs would still go up, just not nearly as much.
 
Where did I say that? Government intervention is the primary factor, that doesn't mean there aren't a multitude of other factors at play. Without any government intervention, HC costs would still go up, just not nearly as much.

I agree that there is a multitude of factors, and government intervention is one.

However the costs are controlled, they do have to be and soon. If you analyze it, much of the cost of government is actually health care, and providing insurance is a drag on private employers as well.
 
So, you don't think that masking the real cost by insurance coverage is a factor?

AS long as people do not choose their own insurance companies with free market principles it IS a factor. In fact I think that how insurance companies are choosen is the second biggest factor effecting costs. If people choose their own insurance companies and paid their own premiums costs would be far less. The gov is responsible for this lack of market forces since it is the gov that created the situation inwhich employers choose your insurance company for you.

What is the biggest factor? consider a doctors care in 1700. One doctor would have visited and offered bloodletting or a few apothacaries on top of whatever herbs you had already tried. In contrast today a team of professionals run mulitmillion dollar equipment and offer highly effective drugs - of course more and better care will cost more than less and less effective care.
 
AS long as people do not choose their own insurance companies with free market principles it IS a factor. In fact I think that how insurance companies are choosen is the second biggest factor effecting costs. If people choose their own insurance companies and paid their own premiums costs would be far less. The gov is responsible for this lack of market forces since it is the gov that created the situation inwhich employers choose your insurance company for you.

What is the biggest factor? consider a doctors care in 1700. One doctor would have visited and offered bloodletting or a few apothacaries on top of whatever herbs you had already tried. In contrast today a team of professionals run mulitmillion dollar equipment and offer highly effective drugs - of course more and better care will cost more than less and less effective care.

The idea of everyone choosing their individual plan works well on paper. In the real world, the insurance companies will compete for the least expensive demographic, while individuals who either have health issues or are simply advancing in age will not be able to get coverage at all. The reason that employers can cover their employees is that it is group insurance. The insurer has the option of bidding to cover everyone, or no one.

What has to be done is divorcing medical insurance from employment, and creating groups in other ways.

Of course, medical care is more expensive than it was in the days of leeches and laudanum. It is also more expensive in the US than in any other nation in the world. Why do you think that is?
 
The idea of everyone choosing their individual plan works well on paper. In the real world, the insurance companies will compete for the least expensive demographic, while individuals who either have health issues or are simply advancing in age will not be able to get coverage at all. The reason that employers can cover their employees is that it is group insurance. The insurer has the option of bidding to cover everyone, or no one.

What has to be done is divorcing medical insurance from employment, and creating groups in other ways.

Of course, medical care is more expensive than it was in the days of leeches and laudanum. It is also more expensive in the US than in any other nation in the world. Why do you think that is?

I don't agree that insurance companies would not want to sell policies to all people. That is like saying that stores only want to sell to rich people. They might prefer rich people but there is plenty of money to be made selling to poor people.

But I do stand corrected in that I never intended for group policies to cease to exist. A free market would allow for groups to form.

Aside from lack of market forces I think medical care is more expensive in the US in large part because more people have private rooms and we have more machines and better paid doctors and we do more ground breaking research, and we do more cosmetic procedures, and we do more of all sorts of elective procedures, etc. And we have better outcomes on the important measures like cancer survival rates.

In short it like shopping at Target versus Walmart. The quality of merchandise and the ambiance is better at Target so it cost more. One could live shopping only at Walmart but given the choice enough will choose Target so that the average cost of what they spend goes up.

Additionally, it is more expensive not just because we get more but because we are sicker. Costs for things that are unrelated to health care policy drives the costs up - things like a high rate of violent crimes and obesity and poor lifestyle and maternal choices.

Add in the fact that various governments lie about how well their countries are doing and massage the data and the services offered to lower actual or apparent costs and there is a bit more wiggle.

The problem as I see it is if one wants Walmart quality (and prices) but lives in Target-land how will that person get lower costs? Only if a person can choose to go to a substandard care center can they do that and the regulatory climate in our country does not allow for intentional substandard care centers. Of course Canada offers plenty of lower quality care (see posts above).

Do insurance companies and law suits add to it? yes.
Fraud and corruption? Yes.
Un-needed procedures? Yes.
 
I don't agree that insurance companies would not want to sell policies to all people. That is like saying that stores only want to sell to rich people. They might prefer rich people but there is plenty of money to be made selling to poor people.

Poor people would never be able to buy a policy on their own. As for the middle class, that depends on their age and health history. How many people do you know who have or have tried to purchase individual policies?

I know some. One is 60 years old. Being in good health, he was able to get a policy, for $2,000 monthly for him and his wife, with a $10,000 deductible.

But I do stand corrected in that I never intended for group policies to cease to exist. A free market would allow for groups to form.

Groups would have to be formed. Of course, the ultimate group would include all Americans.

Aside from lack of market forces I think medical care is more expensive in the US in large part because more people have private rooms and we have more machines and better paid doctors and we do more ground breaking research, and we do more cosmetic procedures, and we do more of all sorts of elective procedures, etc. And we have better outcomes on the important measures like cancer survival rates.

In short it like shopping at Target versus Walmart. The quality of merchandise and the ambiance is better at Target so it cost more. One could live shopping only at Walmart but given the choice enough will choose Target so that the average cost of what they spend goes up.

I think you'd have a hard time supporting the idea that we get better care than do Canadians or Europeans despite our significantly higher costs, or that there is enough spent on cosmetic surgery to make a real difference.

Additionally, it is more expensive not just because we get more but because we are sicker. Costs for things that are unrelated to health care policy drives the costs up - things like a high rate of violent crimes and obesity and poor lifestyle and maternal choices.

That could indeed be a factor, particularly the incidence of violent crime. While we're pretty fat, I'm not so sure we're fatter than the Europeans, but I believe that addiction to nicotine is less in the US than in other nations.

Add in the fact that various governments lie about how well their countries are doing and massage the data and the services offered to lower actual or apparent costs and there is a bit more wiggle.

umm... is there any evidence for that?

The problem as I see it is if one wants Walmart quality (and prices) but lives in Target-land how will that person get lower costs? Only if a person can choose to go to a substandard care center can they do that and the regulatory climate in our country does not allow for intentional substandard care centers. Of course Canada offers plenty of lower quality care (see posts above).

What I see is us getting Walmart care at Nordstrom's prices.

Do insurance companies and law suits add to it? yes.

oh, yes, big time.

Fraud and corruption? Yes.

agreed
Un-needed procedures? Yes.

yes, no question.
 
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