Little-Acorn
Well-Known Member
Desperate Dems ramping up the excuses: 55 House seats "isn't actually a big backlash"
As Democrat turnout falters at the polls today, Democrats are desperately ramping up the diversions, hasty goalpost-moving, and excuses for the debacle that's unfolding.
Oh, by the way: One reason they are losing so badly, is because too many whites and old people are voting. And how do we know this? Why, because the Democrats say so!
----------------------------
http://opinionjournal.com
from "Best of the Web"
by James Taranto
Nov. 2, 2010
We Have Always Been at War With Eastasia
Democrats lose the House? No big deal! It happens all the time, argues Jonathan Chait of The New Republic:
It's worth keeping in mind beforehand a clear sense of what sort of result we would expect if the president's policies and political strategy made no difference at all. That's about a 45 seat loss. I suspect that figure is probably 5-10 seats too low, because President Obama rode a wave in 2008 that was unusually dependent on sporadic voters like the young and minorities, who tend not to turn out during midterm elections. He swept in a lot of House candidates who are going to have trouble winning a midterm election with a disproportionately old and white electorate.
Still, it's a rough ballpark baseline. If you want to have the "what did Obama do wrong" argument, you first need to establish what "wrong" would look like. That's probably a 50 seat-or-more loss.
Liberals bloggers all over are picking up this theme. "As I mentioned on Friday," writes Kevin Drum of Mother Jones, "basic structural factors suggest a Democratic loss of 45 seats in the House this year. If Democrats instead lose 55, that's evidence of a backlash, but not actually a very big one." Fifty-five would exceed the Democrats' losses in 1994. Anything more than that would give the GOP its biggest majority since 1947-48.
Anyway, Drum "mentioned" this as early as Monday, but if we're talking "structural factors," one could have made this prediction anytime since two years ago Friday. Was anyone saying it back then--or even a year ago, or in March, when the House enacted ObamaCare?
As Democrat turnout falters at the polls today, Democrats are desperately ramping up the diversions, hasty goalpost-moving, and excuses for the debacle that's unfolding.
Oh, by the way: One reason they are losing so badly, is because too many whites and old people are voting. And how do we know this? Why, because the Democrats say so!
----------------------------
http://opinionjournal.com
from "Best of the Web"
by James Taranto
Nov. 2, 2010
We Have Always Been at War With Eastasia
Democrats lose the House? No big deal! It happens all the time, argues Jonathan Chait of The New Republic:
It's worth keeping in mind beforehand a clear sense of what sort of result we would expect if the president's policies and political strategy made no difference at all. That's about a 45 seat loss. I suspect that figure is probably 5-10 seats too low, because President Obama rode a wave in 2008 that was unusually dependent on sporadic voters like the young and minorities, who tend not to turn out during midterm elections. He swept in a lot of House candidates who are going to have trouble winning a midterm election with a disproportionately old and white electorate.
Still, it's a rough ballpark baseline. If you want to have the "what did Obama do wrong" argument, you first need to establish what "wrong" would look like. That's probably a 50 seat-or-more loss.
Liberals bloggers all over are picking up this theme. "As I mentioned on Friday," writes Kevin Drum of Mother Jones, "basic structural factors suggest a Democratic loss of 45 seats in the House this year. If Democrats instead lose 55, that's evidence of a backlash, but not actually a very big one." Fifty-five would exceed the Democrats' losses in 1994. Anything more than that would give the GOP its biggest majority since 1947-48.
Anyway, Drum "mentioned" this as early as Monday, but if we're talking "structural factors," one could have made this prediction anytime since two years ago Friday. Was anyone saying it back then--or even a year ago, or in March, when the House enacted ObamaCare?
