Aptly-named Pew "poll" finds Obama ahead by 8%, after asking ** 46% ** more Dems than Republicans??

[Little-Acorn]

Yes, Pew Research notes in their poll report (near the back, no surprise) that they asked 46% more Democrats than Republicans, who they would vote for.

Did Obama come out 46% ahead?

Ummm, try 8%.

Is there any limit to how far these people will skew their samples of the American electorate, in their desperate desire to pretend more people would vote for Obama than for Romney in November?

Peeeewww!

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/09-19-12 Political release.pdf

 

[Cruella]

Where does it show that they asked more Democrats? Do you have the breakdown?

 

[Centrehalf]

That makes sense, there are more registered Democrats than there are Republicans, and the largest group Pew polled was Independents according to the data on page 79. I don't have an issue with their poll, Romney isn't a strong candidate and I'd be surprised if he were shown to be in the lead right now.

 

[Little-Acorn]

The purpose of a poll, in theory, is to predict what will happen during the actual election. To do that, you've got to guesstimate who will vote, and then ask them how they will vote. They might change their mind between now an the election, you can't help that.

But these pollsters are making NO effort to find a sample of people similar to the people who will vote on Nov. 7. Never in the history of the country, has 46% more Dems than Republicans voted in ANY election. Yet these people are perfectly happy to leave their sample with 46% more. In other word, they are happy to produce a poll whose results are pretty much guaranteed to be WAY off from the actual results of the election.

I wrote "in theory", above, because it looks to me like the purpose of this particular poll is NOT to accurately predict the results... obviously.

The purpose of this poll (and the other highly-skewed polls like it) is clearly to discourage Romney voters and make them think an Obama victory is guaranteed... make them believe there's no point in their voting at all.

The Campaign Finance laws Bush signed (his most egregious act as President) restricted how much everybody could spend to get a candidate elected... EXCEPT THE PRESS. The media is taking full advantage of that. If you add up the amount the media spends, concocting these fake "polls" and publicizing them, you'll probably find it dwarfs all other campaign spending combined.

 

[BigRob]

The purpose of a poll, in theory, is to predict what will happen during the actual election. To do that, you've got to guesstimate who will vote, and then ask them how they will vote. They might change their mind between now an the election, you can't help that.

But these pollsters are making NO effort to find a sample of people similar to the people who will vote on Nov. 7. Never in the history of the country, has 46% more Dems than Republicans voted in ANY election. Yet these people are perfectly happy to leave their sample with 46% more. In other word, they are happy to produce a poll whose results are pretty much guaranteed to be WAY off from the actual results of the election.

I wrote "in theory", above, because it looks to me like the purpose of this particular poll is NOT to accurately predict the results... obviously.

The purpose of this poll (and the other highly-skewed polls like it) is clearly to discourage Romney voters and make them think an Obama victory is guaranteed... make them believe there's no point in their voting at all.

The Campaign Finance laws Bush signed (his most egregious act as President) restricted how much everybody could spend to get a candidate elected... EXCEPT THE PRESS. The media is taking full advantage of that. If you add up the amount the media spends, concocting these fake "polls" and publicizing them, you'll probably find it dwarfs all other campaign spending combined.

No one who shows up on November 7th will be voting at all.

 

[Centrehalf]

Never in the history of the country, has 46% more Dems than Republicans voted in ANY election.

Where are you getting the 46% figure? The numbers I saw near the end of the report didn't show an almost 2 to 1 advantage for Democrats over Republicans.

 

[Little-Acorn]

Where are you getting the 46% figure? The numbers I saw near the end of the report didn't show an almost 2 to 1 advantage for Democrats over Republicans.

A 2 to 1 advantage would be 100% more Dems than Republicans, like if 500 Republicans voted and 1,000 Democrats voted.

 

[Little-Acorn]

No one who shows up on November 7th will be voting at all.

Whoops! You got me!

How could I forget? Michelle Obama TOLD us the election was Nov. 2nd.
http://twitchy.com/2012/08/23/whoop...le-obama-says-get-to-the-polls-on-november-2/

I feel terrible about this.....

 

[Centrehalf]

Fair enough. That doesn't answer the question though. What page are you getting your numbers from? I saw the breakdown on page 79, is there another one?

 

[Openmind]

That makes sense, there are more registered Democrats than there are Republicans, and the largest group Pew polled was Independents according to the data on page 79. I don't have an issue with their poll, Romney isn't a strong candidate and I'd be surprised if he were shown to be in the lead right now.

Fair and balanced. I think I like your style!