reedak
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(A) Historian Allan Lichtman ’67 has devised a system that has enabled him to predict the winner of every U.S. presidential election going back to 1984.
His prediction for the 2020 election? Look forward to President Joe Biden in 2021.
“Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992 to lose in a reelection bid,” Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, told a virtual Brandeis audience on Sept. 22.
More than 800 alumni and friends who tuned in to the virtual event heard Lichtman describe the method he calls the “13 Keys to the White House,” which he has used to correctly call each presidential election for the past four decades........
Source: https://alumni.brandeis.edu/news/2020/2020-10-07-lichtman-allan-election.html
(B) Developed by Professor Allan Lichtman in 1981, The 13 Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote....
1) Party Mandate:
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2) Contest:
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination....
Source: https://www.lichtman2020.com/keys
(C) American University historian Professor Allan Lichtman calls 2020 Presidential election for Joe Biden. Allan Lichtman has gotten it right in every presidential race since 1984.
The historian uses a set of up or down questions which he calls “keys” to make his predication. In 2016 he went with a Trump victory because the then candidate had six such keys in his favor. But it is different for an incumbent seeking reelection.
Allan Lichtman told Fox News that, “Now that Trump is the incumbent, he has seven Keys against him. My prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection bid, and Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.”
These are the keys which go against Donald Trump:
Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018.
Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.
Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.
Key 8, Social Unrest, because what is raging across the land.
Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.
Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.
Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.....
Source: https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2020...lection-correctly-predicts-joe-biden-victory/
Additional references:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/allan-lichtman-2020-trump-biden-prediction_n_5f2a6c7fc5b68fbfc88993ee
https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000007227782/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html
https://www.usnews.com/news/electio...alysts-say-trump-will-lose-for-real-this-time
His prediction for the 2020 election? Look forward to President Joe Biden in 2021.
“Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992 to lose in a reelection bid,” Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, told a virtual Brandeis audience on Sept. 22.
More than 800 alumni and friends who tuned in to the virtual event heard Lichtman describe the method he calls the “13 Keys to the White House,” which he has used to correctly call each presidential election for the past four decades........
Source: https://alumni.brandeis.edu/news/2020/2020-10-07-lichtman-allan-election.html
(B) Developed by Professor Allan Lichtman in 1981, The 13 Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote....
1) Party Mandate:
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2) Contest:
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination....
Source: https://www.lichtman2020.com/keys
(C) American University historian Professor Allan Lichtman calls 2020 Presidential election for Joe Biden. Allan Lichtman has gotten it right in every presidential race since 1984.
The historian uses a set of up or down questions which he calls “keys” to make his predication. In 2016 he went with a Trump victory because the then candidate had six such keys in his favor. But it is different for an incumbent seeking reelection.
Allan Lichtman told Fox News that, “Now that Trump is the incumbent, he has seven Keys against him. My prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection bid, and Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.”
These are the keys which go against Donald Trump:
Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018.
Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.
Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.
Key 8, Social Unrest, because what is raging across the land.
Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.
Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.
Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.....
Source: https://jewishbusinessnews.com/2020...lection-correctly-predicts-joe-biden-victory/
Additional references:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/allan-lichtman-2020-trump-biden-prediction_n_5f2a6c7fc5b68fbfc88993ee
https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000007227782/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html
https://www.usnews.com/news/electio...alysts-say-trump-will-lose-for-real-this-time
