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The 10 jobs where you're most (and least) likely to be replaced by a robot

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by The Scotsman, Feb 8, 2017.

  1. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    http://www.cityam.com/258446/10-jobs-youre-most-and-least-likely-replaced-robot

    ....they should include pilots in the most likely column....:whistle:
     
  2. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    Interesting. Pretty harsh on analysts.
    Nit sure about that. I'd also put nursed over docs. A lot of doc work could be automated a l ready is to a degree
     
  3. Walter

    Walter Administrator Staff Member

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    The question is: when all these jobs are replaced by robots and the percentage of unemployed grows, what will happen?
     
  4. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    Who fixes the robots? Who programs them ?
    Thats your growth industry.
    But point taken.
    This is actually why there is no more growth in robotics than there is. The driver on this is cost & quality. Where robots cost more they don't happen.
     
  5. Walter

    Walter Administrator Staff Member

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    You really think that everybody is able to become a robot technician or a software developer? I doubt that.
     
  6. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    The rest earn.what they qualify for.
    Slack off in scool and you're not going to earn much.
    It's no different than competition among countries really.
     
  7. Walter

    Walter Administrator Staff Member

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    So we will end up with...
    • 10% working in administration, tech, medicine
    • 40% working as waitress or such
    • 50% unemployed
    Of course I make up the numbers, but I don't think they will be completely wrong. Do you agree? Otherwise make a guess yourself.

    What will happen when a good portion of adults is unemployed?
     
  8. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    The white collars will need to adapt or lose. They are the biggest bang for buck and therefore target.
    The service class may not change much as there is little benefit.
    The labor class is at risk if they m ake too much to where it's cheaper to buy robots.
    While in theory most every job is possible to do by machine robots are not so cheap that it makes sense to buy them.
     
  9. Lagboltz

    Lagboltz Well-Known Member

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    That's right. Also the goal in some areas of manufacturing is to have the factory run all night with nobody there to tend the robots. In the 90's one unskilled worker could handle the operation of six robots in electronics manufacturing. I'm sure today it's much less and will be less of an opportunity for future employment.

    One team of software developers can handle the requirements of hundreds or thousands of robots with upgrades maybe every few months - not a very large source of work. The software they develop will be very user friendly for unskilled workers.

    https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm
    In 2014 there were 326,600 jobs for programmers.
    Employment of computer programmers is projected to decline 8 percent from 2014 to 2024. Computer programming can be done from anywhere in the world, so companies sometimes hire programmers in countries where wages are lower.
     
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  10. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    When you program a machine to do a thing there is no need for upgrade.
    You will at sone point no longer need the machine to do that task and do another. Nobody makes the same thing forever. Demand won't decline.
     
  11. Lagboltz

    Lagboltz Well-Known Member

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    Oh yes you do need upgrades. I speak from experience. You speak from gut feel. There are always bugs in released software. Everyone knows that. If you release software that is bug-free, too much time goes by and you lose to a competitor who cuts corners.

    Furthermore the programs that have been written for the last 20 years in electronics manufacturing actually must be written so that an unskilled user can change tasks in the field very quickly, often in only one or two minutes. There is artificial intelligence built into the software to do that. If you don't have software with that type of built in auto-training, you lose to competitors who do.
     
  12. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    It's been my career for decades.
    There is a significant difference between business software and this. Bugs are known immediately.
     
  13. PLC1

    PLC1 Moderator Staff Member

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    Demand will decline when half of the people are out of work. We can't all be programmers and robotics experts, particularly when the robots learn to fix and program themselves.
     
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  14. Lagboltz

    Lagboltz Well-Known Member

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    I am certainly envious of anyone that has a career in software, where bugs are immediately known. That does not happen in AI.

    Training an AI system to respond to all possible physical changes, in even highly controlled environments, is highly unlikely outside the manufacturing area. After the first software release, unforeseen problems continually come back from the users in the field.
     
  15. Lagboltz

    Lagboltz Well-Known Member

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    Another example that leads to falling employment is in web programming. At one time programmers had to learn the intricacies of the hypertext language. But systems have come about so that a web page is as easy as a word processor. It is further made easier by thousands of templates for multipage websites that cover all kinds of applications. Web designers no longer need to know programming at all. The hiring of professional web developers is more to take advantage of their aesthetic skills than technical skill.
     
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