North Korea launches Rocket

[BigRob]

The Blue House (South Korea) says liftoff took place at 11:30 a.m. (0230GMT) Sunday morning from the coastal Musudan-ri launch pad in northeastern North Korea.

Japanese broadcaster NHK cites the Japanese government as saying the rocket flew over Japan. It said there were no reports of any debris falling on Japan.

Complete story here.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

yea I saw the reports on CNN..Fox and NBC had nothing at the time. Should be interesting to see the actul reaction of other nations...and how much China gets in the way of anything realy happening to N. Korea. Crappy thing was there was very little anyone could do with reason to stop it.

 

[BigRob]

yea I saw the reports on CNN..Fox and NBC had nothing at the time. Should be interesting to see the actul reaction of other nations...and how much China gets in the way of anything realy happening to N. Korea. Crappy thing was there was very little anyone could do with reason to stop it.

I doubt China has much to publicly say about it, privately they would probably rather not see North Korea get the technology to put an actual warhead on one of these missiles. They probably won't get in the way of much at the UN, but they won't allow North Korea to be classified as a "threat to international peace and security." If you do not see these words in a UN resolution, it is a clear sign that the resolution is meaningless.

South Korea is probably not pleased, but they are not going to start a war over this, they will call for UN condemnation, which probably will come, but will be meaningless.

It said that the missile traveled over Japan, I am somewhat surprised that the Japanese did not at least make an attempt to shoot it down. I had been advocating for the United States to shoot the missile down, but there was a lot of rhetoric about how we should not due that based on the outcome should our missile defense fail. That to me seems like a pretty pathetic reason, but such is life.

In my opinion shooting it down would have been the best option. Of course if we did miss, it would have been a disaster, but I would take the gamble. It is a violation legally for North Korea to test this missile (hence why they call it a satellite), but the real problem does not come from this test, it will come when they are able to put a nuclear warhead on the missile.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

I doubt China has much to publicly say about it, privately they would probably rather not see North Korea get the technology to put an actual warhead on one of these missiles. They probably won't get in the way of much at the UN, but they won't allow North Korea to be classified as a "threat to international peace and security." If you do not see these words in a UN resolution, it is a clear sign that the resolution is meaningless.

South Korea is probably not pleased, but they are not going to start a war over this, they will call for UN condemnation, which probably will come, but will be meaningless.

It said that the missile traveled over Japan, I am somewhat surprised that the Japanese did not at least make an attempt to shoot it down. I had been advocating for the United States to shoot the missile down, but there was a lot of rhetoric about how we should not due that based on the outcome should our missile defense fail. That to me seems like a pretty pathetic reason, but such is life.

In my opinion shooting it down would have been the best option. Of course if we did miss, it would have been a disaster, but I would take the gamble. It is a violation legally for North Korea to test this missile (hence why they call it a satellite), but the real problem does not come from this test, it will come when they are able to put a nuclear warhead on the missile.

hit or miss that's not the gamble...the gamble is North Korea's action if we did. Also they are holding to US hostages I believe still. But should we have taken action and shot it down..and they did something stupid ( its north Korea, they could be that dumb) and they attacked S. Korea even in a limiter fashion...we could have just started a very nasty war...over a satellite launch.

 

[BigRob]

hit or miss that's not the gamble...the gamble is North Korea's action if we did. Also they are holding to US hostages I believe still. But should we have taken action and shot it down..and they did something stupid ( its north Korea, they could be that dumb) and they attacked S. Korea even in a limiter fashion...we could have just started a very nasty war...over a satellite launch.

It was a missile test. Anyway, North Korea would not respond by going to war. By all calculations, force on force in a conventional war they lose to South Korea. North Korea is not going to start a nuclear war (with their extremely limited amount of warheads) over us shooting their missile down.

Their rhetoric on the matter in the lead up to the launch was simply that, rhetoric. Further, Japan should have at least made the attempt when it crossed over their territory...legally they have every right to do so.

I think what the North mostly cares about it regime survival, therefore rushing into a war that kills the regime is not something they will take lightly. I would argue that their response to their missile being shot down (especially as it was in Japanese territory) would be quite weak.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

It was a missile test. Anyway, North Korea would not respond by going to war. By all calculations, force on force in a conventional war they lose to South Korea. North Korea is not going to start a nuclear war (with their extremely limited amount of warheads) over us shooting their missile down.

Their rhetoric on the matter in the lead up to the launch was simply that, rhetoric. Further, Japan should have at least made the attempt when it crossed over their territory...legally they have every right to do so.

I think what the North mostly cares about it regime survival, therefore rushing into a war that kills the regime is not something they will take lightly. I would argue that their response to their missile being shot down (especially as it was in Japanese territory) would be quite weak.

yes it was realy a missile test, but in fact what was on it was not a warhead so , fact is we would shoot down a non missile, and start a war. Also we are not dealing with a sane leader, and its more possible that he would take actions that in the end result in war. not that he would just go to all out war...and its a pretty big gamble on a wack jobs reaction....

If we realy wanted to shoot it, we may has well have just bombed the site then anyway.

currently I think the best case for the US is to wait, with security showing signs that health issues may cause new leadership, we may gain more by waiting to see. Putting presure on some in the military to overthrow him and find someone who while we may not like...may be a bit more sane at least ...thus we have a better idea of there actions and reactions.,

And yes if it did in fact go into japans territory I dont know why they did not..they stated they would I thought.

 

[BigRob]

yes it was realy a missile test, but in fact what was on it was not a warhead so , fact is we would shoot down a non missile, and start a war.

Yes, the bigger problem will be when the North can put a nuclear warhead on a missile. That said, the moment the missile entered Japanese air space, regardless of what it was, they had every right to shoot it down. Also, we had every right to shoot it down if we classified it as a threat to our own security. Legally it would be a tougher sell, but doable.

Also we are not dealing with a sane leader, and its more possible that he would take actions that in the end result in war. not that he would just go to all out war...and its a pretty big gamble on a wack jobs reaction....

He is a loose cannon, but I would argue most of what he does is an attempt to ensure regime survival, which is really not that insane. I have strong doubts he would start a war over this, and I have even bigger doubts that China would tolerate it, which has to be in their thinking.

If we realy wanted to shoot it, we may has well have just bombed the site then anyway.

No, that would be an act of war and play into their hands. If you establish the reasoning however where you are on sound legal footing, it will be pretty tough to lose that one in the world opinion battle.

Further, shooting it down could have shown that our missile defense system actually works, which would be a major boost to US credibility, and could have reassured Japan, and perhaps even countered their own proliferation goals.

currently I think the best case for the US is to wait, with security showing signs that health issues may cause new leadership, we may gain more by waiting to see. Putting presure on some in the military to overthrow him and find someone who while we may not like...may be a bit more sane at least ...thus we have a better idea of there actions and reactions.,

No one in the North Korean military is going to overthrown the leader. That is simply not a real option. His son (that is thought to be the next in line) is hardly any better. If you want to wait, which is fine, the best option is to start reassuring regional allies, one major way to do so could have been to shoot the thing down. After that, if you want to take it to the UN, fine, but demand a resolution that classifies NK as a "threat to International peace and security" to show we actually mean business. Otherwise, all we will get is more of the same.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Yes, the bigger problem will be when the North can put a nuclear warhead on a missile. That said, the moment the missile entered Japanese air space, regardless of what it was, they had every right to shoot it down. Also, we had every right to shoot it down if we classified it as a threat to our own security. Legally it would be a tougher sell, but doable.



He is a loose cannon, but I would argue most of what he does is an attempt to ensure regime survival, which is really not that insane. I have strong doubts he would start a war over this, and I have even bigger doubts that China would tolerate it, which has to be in their thinking.



No, that would be an act of war and play into their hands. If you establish the reasoning however where you are on sound legal footing, it will be pretty tough to lose that one in the world opinion battle.

Further, shooting it down could have shown that our missile defense system actually works, which would be a major boost to US credibility, and could have reassured Japan, and perhaps even countered their own proliferation goals.



No one in the North Korean military is going to overthrown the leader. That is simply not a real option. His son (that is thought to be the next in line) is hardly any better. If you want to wait, which is fine, the best option is to start reassuring regional allies, one major way to do so could have been to shoot the thing down. After that, if you want to take it to the UN, fine, but demand a resolution that classifies NK as a "threat to International peace and security" to show we actually mean business. Otherwise, all we will get is more of the same.

it would have shown that our missile defence could hit one missile...one time..that's not the most reassuring thing..I would be more scared if it gave us a false sense of security like in the first Iraq war when we thought the patriot was hitting 99% of targets at the time...only to find out later it failed the majority if not almost every time. Worst case of course we try, fail..and then we gained nothing and North Korea gets its wet dream basically.

as for who takes over, I think that may not be as clear as Korea would like, I am sure more then a few in the military see a crazy man as a leader, and would be more then willing to try to sidestep his kid for power. That said one would need a much better intel sheet on His current health, and what our options in regards to a coup, or change or leadership without our control. As of right now I would not have enough to say waiting for sure is best, but I would suspect we have better options down the road to flex, then we had this time.

 

[BigRob]

it would have shown that our missile defence could hit one missile...one time..that's not the most reassuring thing..I would be more scared if it gave us a false sense of security like in the first Iraq war when we thought the patriot was hitting 99% of targets at the time...only to find out later it failed the majority if not almost every time. Worst case of course we try, fail..and then we gained nothing and North Korea gets its wet dream basically.

Well that is the point of our missile defense, to combat threats like NK. The real problem with shooting it down was most likely the structure of the test. Aegis and THADD both target the terminal phase, and we really had nothing in the region to hit the boost phase.

I just wish we had put something in the area to target the boost phase test.

That all assumes that the test went this way, which has yet to be reported on, but that is most likely the case.

as for who takes over, I think that may not be as clear as Korea would like, I am sure more then a few in the military see a crazy man as a leader, and would be more then willing to try to sidestep his kid for power. That said one would need a much better intel sheet on His current health, and what our options in regards to a coup, or change or leadership without our control. As of right now I would not have enough to say waiting for sure is best, but I would suspect we have better options down the road to flex, then we had this time.

Even if what you say is true, our intelligence gathering in NK is pathetic, and our ability to really then carry out that, is even more pathetic. I just do not see it as an option.

 

[Bunz]

Ah the North Koreans. Somehow I just cant help but think about the puppet movie, Team America:World Police.

Anyways, as a personal note, I am in range of these missiles. Whilst we are all in the range of Soviet and Chinese ICBMs, I am on the outer range of what NKorea is capable of at this time. That doesnt make me lose sleep, but it isnt exactly comforting.

While I dont want to minimize the potential threats and problems from NKorea, I do think it is important for Americans and specifically the decision makers to know and realise that they are a hell of a lot more afraid of us, than we are of them.

I am pretty sure that the egomaniacal Kim Jong Ill is sane enough to know that any dumb actions concerning WMDs will trigger annihilation of thier country and more importantly them personally. Guys like this, and Saddam being another example, think little of wiping out a few hundred thousand people, but are themselves petrified of thier own death.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Complete story here.

Gee.....no opinion, huh?

I thought that was a Cardinal Sin, around here.....posting an item without some personal-opinion, on the matter.

Givin' yourself a Bush-style pass, are you?

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[Mr. Shaman]

hit or miss that's not the gamble...the gamble is North Korea's action if we did. Also they are holding to US hostages I believe still. But should we have taken action and shot it down..and they did something stupid ( its north Korea, they could be that dumb) and they attacked S. Korea even in a limiter fashion...we could have just started a very nasty war...over a satellite launch.

It's a good thing George Bush wasn't (still) in-office.

He'd have more-than-likely attacked Ireland, in response.​

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Well, folks......it's lookin' like Joe Biden was RIGHT!

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[Ronaldus Magnus]

Well, folks......it's lookin' like Joe Biden was RIGHT!

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A drunk monkey with one leg throwing darts could have predicted this for God sake. Give your boy a big pat on the back! Gee, NK was setting this up for months, and your right they were scared of Bush. Thus they reason they launch now after your push over President is in office. They knew he would do nothing as did the rest of the world. I really question whether or not he would do anything if we were attacked in some way. But if it makes you proud to know that terrorist don't seem to have a healthy fear of your President or your country good for you. I hope you continue to have technicolor tie dyed dreams.......I hope I never have to see how this President will react if the "fit does hit the shan."

 

[Mr. Shaman]

A drunk monkey with one leg throwing darts could have predicted this for God sake. Give your boy a big pat on the back! Gee, NK was setting this up for months, and your right they were scared of Bush.

Yeah.....that's why he reimplemented The Clinton Way, regarding North Korea.

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Thus they reason they launch now after your push over President is in office. They knew he would do nothing as did the rest of the world. I really question whether or not he would do anything if we were attacked in some way. But if it makes you proud to know that terrorist don't seem to have a healthy fear of your President or your country good for you. I hope you continue to have technicolor tie dyed dreams.......I hope I never have to see how this President will react if the "fit does hit the shan."

Yeah......you and Gramps McBush .....

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