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New Egyptian Government

Discussion in 'Middle Eastern Politics' started by GenSeneca, Feb 4, 2011.

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What kind of government will Egypt have in the future?

Poll closed Apr 5, 2011.
  1. Islamic State under Sharia

    50.0%
  2. Western style Democracy

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Other (Please explain)

    50.0%
  1. GenSeneca

    GenSeneca Well-Known Member

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    There seem to be a lot of conflicting opinions as to the future government of Egypt... This thread is a chance for you to go on the record making a prediction about the type of government Egypt will have in the future.

    My vote, Islamic state under Sharia law.
     
  2. steveox

    steveox Well-Known Member

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    I Voted for other. I hope it turns into a government like China,Cuba or Venezuela. They need to be controled. The people are poor the need free healthcare,Free Food,Free Housing and the right to work.
     
  3. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    With o legitimate opposition the petrie dish is primed for Taliban II.
     
  4. Gipper

    Gipper Well-Known Member

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    Right now, it looks like an Islamic Republic similar to Iran is most likely. Even the liberal Richard Cohen thinks Egypt is in for trouble.

     
  5. Apathy

    Apathy Member

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    I wouldnt call any government in the west or the east for that matter a democracy.
     
  6. Stalin

    Stalin Active Member

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    A military dictatorship with the figleaf of democracy.

    Turkey is probably the closest model with an allowance of the muslim dress code.

    Comrade Stalin
     
  7. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    democratic but with a bit extra power with the military due to its being very popular in the nation. I agree that Turkey could be a good example..

    I believe that the people have been very clear they don't want a Islamic state...if it was to form one...you would see the same protests back in the streets. That is not to say Islam will not have a strong influence ...after all the majority are Muslim...though a far more secular Muslim then say Saud Arabia.
     
  8. Pidgey

    Pidgey Active Member

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    You guys need to think of countries more as businesses than actual ideologies. The oil production in Egypt is already post peak and their consumption has been climbing. They currently import 40% of their food and 60% of their wheat (which, obviously, is part of the food). They've paid for those imports with LNG exports (liquefied natural gas), which have literally flattened out for the last five years.

    Since their current oil consumption is equal to their production and their exports have essentially flattened out, they really cannot maintain their exponential population growth of 2%/year, ESPECIALLY... given that their oil production is going down.

    You see, the problem is one of a confluence of factors--the point where the consumption curve intercepts the production curve such that the sign of the bottom line goes from a positive to a negative. Regardless of the regime installed at this point, they're stuck with an insolvency problem. When a sovereign goes insolvent, it ain't pretty...
     
  9. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    you say that as if oil is the only way to make money...like many in the area...if they have spent the money on there people, and building new forms of revenue...and not corruption and a military...maybe this would not be such a issue...then again its exactly why Mubarak will fall.
     
  10. Pidgey

    Pidgey Active Member

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    True wealth is made by mining, manufacturing and/or agriculture. Since their mining is about to go negative and their agriculture is deeply negative, then manufacturing for other nations would have to be increased to rebalance the equation. BUT... there are bracketing realities that are complicating here: most other nations have so much debt that they're mostly buying from nations with slave-labor conditions for their workforce. And as the price of energy backstops the price of food commodities, there's your most damaging feedback that's affecting them the worst. That, and water rights.

    The problem with exponential population growth in a world of finite resources is that the mathematical intercept where population needs equal (and then exceed) ultimate supply and productivity is NEVER an "if", it's always a "when". Sure, it can be a little fuzzy given the capacity for efficiency gains and whatnot. But efficiency gains ALWAYS come with an increasing pricetag so there's always "the straw that broke the camel's back". Unfortunately, Egypt's there, but in good company--so are a lot of other countries. Now it's up to them to start cannibalizing capital, which will work for awhile.

    There's always been corruption. Given the seeming inviolability of the Pareto Principle, you might as well just factor it in and be done with that particular argument. And you seem to infer that only The Rich are capable of corruption, when it's literally spread up and down the scale. But, to play along, supposing that all The Corrupt Rich of Egypt suddenly grew a conscience and distributed their LIQUID wealth amongst the populus, what would happen? The populus would celebrate their very-modestly-enhanced wages by procreating more population and, voila', a few months/years later... an even worse mess with NOBODY to blame. What comes next?
     
  11. PLC1

    PLC1 Moderator Staff Member

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    That is the way it seems to be going just now, no doubt. Unfortunately for the Egyptians, your prediction is most likely correct.

    The Egyptians won't be really free until they separate church and state. Whether they have the sort of government we do or not, they have to follow that example or they'll never be free.
     
  12. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    First why do you say that? just becuse the Muslim brotherhood will have a say?

    2nd...people seem to forget, Egypt has a constitution already...one that in fact already talks about Sharia Law...but as a Amendment that states that any new laws...should not go against Sharia law...this was made in 1980.

    Also the Muslim Brotherhood was part of Elections already...2 Elections ago...(2005)they got 20% or so...of course then Egypt cracked down harder on Democracy. And the world did not end...

    Also we should not forget....in Iran...hard line Islam..Lost in a election....sure they lied to keep power...but its well known that without Fraud...Irans hardliner view of Islam..lost in a Election.

    Just becuse a group wants Islam to be a primary focus ...does not mean they are = to Al Queda or the taliban as some seem to act. All that is realy agreed on by the Brotherhood is that Islam should be the primary focus...there is alot of debate within as for how strict this should be, the roles of woman, and interpretations.

    I would hate to have Christian Fundamentalist rule the US...to me it would be no different then the Muslim Brotherhood...But it does not mean I support the idea they should not get to vote.
     
  13. Stalin

    Stalin Active Member

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    How would you rate these guys for insolvency ?

    http://www.usdebtclock.org/

    Comrade Stalin
     
  14. Pidgey

    Pidgey Active Member

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    Bad, too. Spend more than you thermodynamically earn and you're in trouble. That about sums up most countries these days, and it often happens when the finance economy gets too much bigger than the real economy. When it gets to the point where you can't feed enough of your populace, though--you're looking at some kind of die-off, usually in the form of a revolution.
     
  15. dogtowner

    dogtowner Moderator Staff Member

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    what the Brotherhood is after

    Nah, nothing like Al Q at all...
     

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