Markets today..

Be Save Buy OBAMABONDS! ​

As you know I don't subscribe to the end of the world theory. This continues to be hedge funds and ​
mutual funds​
getting redemptions. ​

Gold is up but its no safe haven. If the world were really in dire straights how valuable would a chunk of gold be? It is a classic old wive's tail and we have been over that ground over and over. ​

Every long is taking a hit so the strategy what makes sense. For me I am in three areas which I like. I started buying oil today and I own the things that ship oil. My theory is that India and China and Japan will prefer buying cheaper oil to expensive bonds. Oil is a good bit more useful than Gold and when its cheap, everyone increases strategic stockpiles and even stores it off shore in tankers which eats up the excesses tonnage and drives up the spot shipping rates. ​

But this is only a plan if you don't believe in the end of the world. If you believe it is the end of the world then you can still use oil as a means to plow fields and do work. Gold will give you nothing. Except some black hoodies will want to steal it for their gold teeth replacements from eating too many skittles. ​

I am also willing to wait whatever it takes on my bond shorts. I continue to buy then as they go lower. I am in low but still down about 5% overall. The key to this thing, is that it is inevitable. ​

My idea is that stupid money is now buying bonds, europeans. China is declining and I am certain they will buy oil. It is sickening to hear the mantra that the dollar rise against the euro is the cause for the deflation in the markets and oil. That is merely an exchange rate. Bernanke is now between a rock and a hard place. He is trying to fight deflation which is amusing by pushing down bond rates in order to stimulate more risk taking ​
investment​
and to get banks to loan. ​

First, the only ones speculating are GS and JPM and they are getting whipped. 25% of this sell off is JPM. The rest is hedge ​
funds​
trying to short JPM and every stock in their portfolio. So that's how well speculation works. This has triggered redemptions by the billions. ​

Then there is the argument that the US is a safe haven. Really? With Obama this is the next socialist collapse. You can always tell a liberal... the economy is tanking and they are talking about gay marriage stuff that just galls everyone. The good news is that Americans are really sick of the Sambos. The difference with the Obama I which was Jimmy Carter... While he was very proud of his humility, though completely incompetent, his wife Mrs. Carter always seemed like a nice person and honorable first lady. That ain't the case with the Obama. They have a particularly unflattering video going around. ​

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJgWMI0hch8​
​

The Flag she was alluding to was the raising of the American Flag at a school for the Deaf and the Blind. The deaf kids saw the tape on TV and could read her lips at full speed. And look at the disgusting face of that woman. My God, those people are repulsive. She looks like an ape. ​

I think with the jobless rate going up even though "jobless claims are down" that's a joke, that idiot obama and biden have inspired zero confidence in everything they touch. ​

Obama is now by the way asking for your vote so he can "fix" healthcare. Fix fkenheathcare? We are in a freaking recession with the hapless lazy europeans trying to hold the world hostage for their socialism, the hallmark which is their nationalized health care. You can't control people until you get absolute control of their healthcare and remove all choices. That is how socialism operates. ​

So I am all for the pain if it means we get rid of this taint upon our land. I also hope the whole of europe collapses with their euro. Socialism simply doesn't work. and to those that think Sweeden is a paradise; its not.. just ask Alba or anyone that is productive. ​

So, the market fear keep growing out of essentially nothing. That is why "betting" on the VXX or other similar derivatives is only for the chumps. I think oil is better. No matter how you slice it oil is coming back up because OPEC will cut supplies or make the announcement. Oil could still drop to under 80 but I will just buy more. Sooner or later, it comes back and in a world of scared people, you can have your obamabonds, I will take oil and the ships that carry it. ​
 
Werbung:
Well it was a nice rally today not just short covering. This was significantly different. I continue to predict that T-bonds will sell off in fact I regard that as a long term positions, maybe even two or three years. I also believe it is in the best interest of Asia to not buy US bonds​
but to buy oil instead and stockpile. I see precious metals going lower. If the europeans would stop making news it would be helpful. ​

The talking heads always have these queer fantasies that oil for example will drop to 79 and they will start buying. News flash, I don't see the compelling reason to drop below 80 but I suspect they had to say something; they usually do and they usually get it wrong. ​

One of the funnier lines of disreason is when they say the dollar is up so oil is down. Now let's see... dollar is up about 1% and oil has dropped about 25%. Yup sure makes sense to me. ​

Nice day and nice to see Obama cruising lower in the poles. I have seen some talking heads that say today was because bernanke is talking tomorrow. Nonsense. JPM finally finished up their selling with a loss of over 4.5 billion. My wild guess was it was about 5 billion but that's what happens when one of the big "banks" gets on the wrong side of an unhedged trades​
. ​

I wonder where bonds will be in another year; don't know, but I do know that when somebody yells fire, bondholders will storm the exits and it will be ugly. A lot of businesses and individuals will lose a lot of money very very quickly. I also think gold will drop to about $300 and when it lets loose, it will be an express elevator through the bottom of the basement. Sorry gold bugs I know you love gold and silver but is just not going to work out. IMO​
 
I'm sorry, but the market seems rather schizophrenic to me. All the indicators haven't changed from when they tanked over the last month/days, and now with Bernanke coming out telling congress we are on the edge of the cliff.
 
I would say that this is nothing more than hedge fund bullsiht trying to sell the european store again and again and again. After this week we have the Greek vote again and again and again. My hope is that Greece has another stalemate so this can go on and on and on again forever. The smart investor is tuning out all this yack. ​

The real action is in the Bond shorts. Right now the shorts have the longs by the throat. Pimco was out all weekend trying push the idea of a new normal meaning super low interest rates on debt. But what they failed to say was the premium paid for super low interest is in a bubble. They say this is different this time... but it is never different, a bubble is a bubble and this one is gigantic. It is bigger than the housing bubble. ​

The mom and pops own 6.5 trillion of the treasury bond debt. Bernanke owns 1.68 trillion. Corporation due to the silly FDIC rule that only insures 250K per account has another 3 trillion in there. Japan has 1.6 trillion and China 1 trillion. ​

It is now stuffed at the lowest yields in 75 years! And we aren't in a deflation. ​

So it you think 100 billion is a huge sum to backstop Spanish Banks which have a trillion dollar economy then I am sorry but your are not playing with much in the way of math skills. ​

Overall the Euro does not look so terribly out of balance compared to the US Bond market. ​

I give you three guesses as to who is going to get it in the so called "new normal". Pemco says no problem. Just watch. ​

Bond money is scared money so it is destined for other hands anyway. This bond game is the hedge funds greatest game in history. This is not chump change. We are talking about private money running at 10% so this 1.5% interest has huge pressure on it. And so much capital is tied up in this debt it is simply off the scale. This is the big big bubble. ​

Corporations are pulling money out to do acquisitions. Pimco is probably shorting the bond market and talking it up as the new normal. China is stepping back and Japan is up to its eyeballs as is the Fed. The Fed can simply let rates float higher but they lose capital gains. So who is going to get it... The mom and pops. They left the stock market for the safety​
of the bond bubble. ​

Bernake and twist is a big part of the problem and that ends at the end of June. That's why this bond bubble is coming to a head. But of course by all means believe that Europe is at risk so the bond market can go just a little more parabolic and bust. ​
By all means... buy gold so you can get trapped in another bubble. This will be the one two punch for scared money.​
 
^Do y9u follow Soros? He was talking about a European bubble exploding in three months, and that was about a month ago. He seems to be a master at ruining (or getting blamed for ruining) economies, so I wondered about taking his advice or running in the opposite direction.

http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1150.html
 
I am selling the QE III hype. Moved to very substantial cash positions. Had a huge run up in the last month and just could not justify the risk of Bernanke even saying the word "Twist" again. ​

Twist is good for JPM and GS and bad for everyone else. The possibility of a Japan styled stagflation is now a reality. Japan has had zero interest for years and they are nothing but a heavily indebted zombie society. ​

Several hedge funds have actually closed stating that the unknown policy risk has created too much risk [Even for a hedge fund] One of the funds was a Hedge healthcare fund and the owner founder was exhausted. ​

I am not a market timer so my conduct is based on valuations. I am afraid that Bernanke has so misconstrued Twist which has been a absolute failure that it pushes us straight to Japan. ​

I also think that Obama gets nuttier by the day. I think he is bipolar and out of his mind and early summer in the South is when the nuts come out of the woodwork and do their craziest things. ​

While we await the Obamcare verdict I think the risk is so compiled that it is insurmountable. Anything but an absolute defeat of it creates taxes to nowhere and chaotic uncertainty across the board. ​

Hospital have been buying up Dr. Practices and will have enormous liability unless they can stick these costs to the taxpayes. That's no way to run a business. Its exhausting risk. ​

My oil was up over 20% so I sold that. I see the hedges are publishing the idea that they are buying commodities. I think this is propaganda and they are in fact selling. ​

I think Hispanics have become a very dangerous population opting for lawless immigration and that is akin to a declaration of war in America. I expected Obama to be a fire starter once again and race arsonist but this shows an entitlement conduct out of Mexico primarily that is going to end up with severe hostility. The Mexicans forget how vicious the American people can become if pushed too far and I think that moment was reached this last week with obama. ​

And now the bipolar is talking about trying to scale back healthcare with a new bill. It never ends. So he is anticipating the bill to be damaged but not destroyed by the Supremes. I think that is like cutting the tail off a viper; the bloody thing is still extremely dangerous. It involves 1/6th of the economy and without the mandate if they leave the rest intact which is insane, that would create a huge medicaid liability and only 2% of doctors nationwide take medicaid so the brunt would go to the hospitals with their lavish expansions and reduced reimbursements. I see the entire field disruption in absolute chaos. And the 30 million illegal mexicans will lean on the taxpayers like there is no tomorrow. As I said, we are getting near the point of war with Mexico. ​

If you want to see true #ell on earth go to Mexico city and enjoy that filthy city of 57 million Mexicans. That is their dream for America, a ravaged society. ​

I just bought some inverse ViX today. This looks to me like a Fed Short Squeeze. But like I said, if the word TWIST is brought up my Bernanke, then all bets are off. TWIST is ruinous. ​

Normally an election year would be a market that ends 14% higher if a Dem is elected and 18.8% higher if a Rep is elected. But that won't be the case this year. There is way too much disruption. ​

Further today is a shore squeeze what I expected to see yesterday but there is NO action in the futures which is an ominous sign. These are short hedges running for their lives out of fear of some kind of political juice by Bernanke. ​

I sold my housing stocks today up a full 56%. I simply could not justify the huge forward risk with the political and monetary policy being so completely out of control. ​

BUT I AM MOST CERTAINLY NOT A BUYER OF GOLD. That is a scared money trap. So are the bond shorts at this time which sounds anti-intuitive but the discussion of the "new normal" by Gross really means the Fed Twist insanity. I never dreamed that I would see the day when a policy so errant as TWIST was brought back, did so poorly and there is bernanke virtually planning to extend it for three years. ​

IMHO

Today is Risk off! ​
 
I think its a given that unless there is QE III, the markets will dive. That being said, why is there euphoria? We are awfully close to the election for Bernanke to give a partisan boost to the ​
stock market​
... Note I did not say the economy. All the boosting in the world is not going to budge the economy when corporations face the kind of Taxes that are heading their way. The taxes will be bad in 2013 but will destroy them in 2014, the year bernanke figures he will let interest rates rise. Nonsense. This is looking more and more like Japan where zero interest stagnates everything. ​

Why take on the risk of lending for nothing. That won't even pay your legal fees on a default. What is troubling is that Bernanke hasn't learned anything. He even admits that Twist failed to work. Of course it has never worked before so naturally the Fed decided to do it. Meanwhile even today with all the euphoria... bonds are loading up not selling off. I think there will be a bond crash some day but as long as ​
interest rates​
are low... the guess is off as to when. Just like Japan, could be twenty years. Imagine suffering with interest rates at near zero for twenty years. There would be no money lent. ​

The only parties that benefit would be GS and JPM who would use that free money to buy oil futures and run up the prices. Or running up corn futures now that hedge funds have bought a large amount of midwest grain elevator businesses. Why would hedge funds buy grain elevator businesses? Duhhhh how about commodity futures control. ​

Look at europe now down to zero interest and they are up to their necks in debt. Socialist are chipping away at Austerity they never adopted. Its business as usual only this time they think that Germany is holding the bag. Germany is already in for 35% of their GDP! Europe is held together by nothing. It is just one socialist wreck gaming another. ​

France moving Socialist has made it impossible for France to recover. They are attempting to punish businesses and destroy wealth. So money is moving toward the so-called safe havens in the US which are the bonds. Better there than european debt. ​

The European Summit was grasping at straws. Remember Soros claiming that Europe had just three days to exist? Like I have said all along, Socialist empires die slowly and take all available credit with them in the process. ​

Germany would be advised to leave the EU and bring back the Mark which was a solid and desirable currency. As it stands now, they are shackled with the Euro for what? To have trade across the boarders of other countries that don't even speak a uniform language? ​

Most of Europe speaks English as a second language but the tower of babble is alive and well in some states. ​

The EU is a failure. Germany should leave and let the weak lean against each other until the whole socialist mess caves in. ​

As for the US, somebody has to tow the line on this debt. We are now the greatest debtor nation with the biggest debtor in the form of Kingsambo in the white house. There will be no settlement to any of this as long as they kick the can down the street. This conduct is setting us up for a colossal economic disaster in which the entire globe sinks into a 1930s style depression. The central banks around the globe other than China perhaps, have no more weapons. They are all down to Zero interest windows. They are all printing money but since it is not being lent, the M1 supplies are actually staying flat and prices are falling. This is natural deflation and it occurs when interest rates get to zero. If gov spending doesn't slow, you get inflation with NO jobs and NO economic growth whatsoever. ​

We have seen this all many time before. I am believe in fundamental analysis and though there are some cheap companies out there, overall I would say earnings will decline so I simply can't buy this market. The stocks I have are doing well, too well in my estimation for present conditions. I am waiting for a big dumb rally to unload them. Markets are about 400 points from the top trading​
range and about 1000 from the bottom range. So I see this as a high risk market no matter what the hedge fund press say and no matter how much they push QEIII. I find the idea of more QE completely repulsive and damaging to the economy and mindless. ​

I am short oil which is doing well today and I have a large position in an inverse Vix analogue which is doing well even in this fakey up market. It just demonstrates the duplicity of this insane call for more QE. The only groups that benefit from QE are GS and JPM and hedge funds. Businesses, and everyone else gets their pockets picked. God help the country the day lending and inflation pickup because the dollar will erode and likely need to be devalued. People in Bonds then get eaten alive. It is not beyond to gov to rip off the citizens and its coming because of the insane FED liquidity. ​

There is no shortage of capital, people are swimming in capital, nobody is lending because interest rates are too low. This toxic lending enviroment​
has gone from Japan to the US and now to all of Europe. Everywhere it goes the results are disastrous. China is lowering because it has no choice. They have got to match the world dollar for dollar for exports. Bernanke is squeezing the globe into an insane stagnation. This is why QE fails every time. Think about it we are in a 4 year recession and unemployment has just gotten worse. If not for the crazy manipulation by the obama admin of those numbers we too would be at the magic 11% unemployment as is Europe. But it can get worse much worse. ​

There has NEVER been a recovery from a recession with low interest rates. There has only been endless stagflation as in Japan. With europe going to zero now... this has the makings of a global depression which could last years. JMO​
 
cashmcall said:
There has NEVER been a recovery from a recession with low interest rates. There has only been endless stagflation as in Japan. With europe going to zero now... this has the makings of a global depression which could last years. JMO​
Click to expand...

I enjoy your posts, but admit that I don't understand very much about that world. Didn't China also drop their interest rates?
 
Cruella said:
I enjoy your posts, but admit that I don't understand very much about that world. Didn't China also drop their interest rates?
Click to expand...
China is lowering because it has no choice. They have got to match the world dollar for dollar for exports............​
 
France moving Socialist has made it impossible for France to recover. They are attempting to punish businesses and destroy wealth. So money is moving toward the so-called safe havens in the US which are the bonds. Better there than european debt. ​

The European Summit was grasping at straws. Remember Soros claiming that Europe had just three days to exist? Like I have said all along, Socialist empires die slowly and take all available credit with them in the process. ​

Germany would be advised to leave the EU and bring back the Mark which was a solid and desirable currency. As it stands now, they are shackled with the Euro for what? To have trade across the boarders of other countries that don't even speak a uniform language? ​

Most of Europe speaks English as a second language but the tower of babble is alive and well in some states. ​

The EU is a failure. Germany should leave and let the weak lean against each other until the whole socialist mess caves in. ​

​
Always fascinating when Europe sees itself as "united" in any way, and the common currency was always, at best, a pipe-dream.
Germany will put a dagger into the Euro's heart--as soon as they have lost enough. Which will be soon.
 
Werbung:
Sell into these faky bear rallies with dogged discipline. Hedges know they are pushing markets on a raft of bullkrap. Today's catalyst by the was was British manufacturing numbers. Does anyone have a clue how far down Britain is at this point? They are in a sea of endless debt and socialism and a huge population of bottomed out losers. The liquidity valves on on full blast and the great empire is evaporating. But that was the euphoria of the day. ​

I would not be buying dips anytime soon. This market has the potential to drop substantially. Once the think veneer of bullkrap falls off the bullsiht meter, there is only one place for these markets to do and that's down. I think we are going to head into the most brutal August on record. And if romney doesn't find a way to say more than nothing, then markets are going to start on a long nosedive and will not recover for the year. ​

Look at the activity today. Fully pumped up futures before the market then soaring to over 80 and now down to 17 and red in Nasdaq. This has the capacity to turn ugly in seconds. I think that these markets are the most dangerous I have seen in years because nothing is working. The Bond market is dysfunctional. Tech is slugging down, healthcare is in a shambles. Retail is the only thing that works and the small business sentiment is abysmal. And then you have King Obama playing politics again with the bush tax cut extensions. You can always rely on king Obama and his acorn styled training to keep everything up in the air...​
 

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