I wrote this a couple days after the election -- am interested in your thoughts:
In the 2012 Presidential election, President Obama secured over 70% of the Hispanic vote, while the share of Hispanics that supported Mitt Romney and the Republican ticket fell to its lowest level in years. Over the last three Presidential elections, Hispanic support for Republicans has fallen from a high of 44% in 2004, to the 27% that Mitt Romney was able to obtain. Clearly, the Republican Party is losing the argument with Hispanic voters, but why?
There are elements within the Republican Party that argue this is all about immigration. They argue that if only Republicans would tone down the rhetoric and support the inevitable immigration reform, be it amnesty, a pathway to citizenship, or the generic “comprehensive immigration reform”, then we would easily garner Hispanic support. While it is true that Republicans should tone down divisive rhetoric, be it on immigration, abortion, or the use of force, the idea that the pathway to attract Hispanics to the Republican Party rests with the immigration issue is misguided.
First, Republicans should not simply abandon a principled policy in an effort to possibly curry favor with a certain demographic down the road. If our principles mean anything, we can stand on them and win. A Pew Research study conducted in April 2012 found that when asked whether we should have stricter controls and more restrictions on people coming into this country to live, 86% of Republicans agreed, 58% of Democrats agreed, and 70% of Independents agreed. Republicans do not have to do an about face on the immigration question and support amnesty, or an open border policy to win on this issue. If the above poll is any indication, people across the political spectrum would oppose blanket amnesty and open borders, and instead Republicans can use the issue to talk about serious ideas for reform, like a more inclusive guest worker program, more legal immigration, and backing successful state based approaches to immigration challenges.
This said, why is a Republican focus on immigration to court the Hispanic vote misguided? Simple – in poll after poll from this election, Hispanic voters told us they were not focused on immigration. A Gallup poll from June 2012 asked Hispanic voters to rank their most important issues. At the top of the list with 21% was Healthcare, followed by Unemployment at 19%, Economic Growth at 17%, Income Inequality at 16%, leaving the last two major issues of Immigration and the Budget Deficit at 12% and 11% respectively. Gallup went on to say:
Obama leads Romney by 75 percentage points -- 86% to 11% -- among Hispanic voters whose top issue concern is the gap between the rich and poor. He leads by 50 or more points among those citing healthcare and immigration policies. And he leads by 25 or more points among those who cite unemployment and economic growth. Among only one group of Hispanics, those citing the federal budget deficit as most important, does Romney beat Obama, 54% to 34%.
To put this data another way, Romney was only able to win a majority of Hispanics on the issue that the fewest of them were concerned about. Further, it highlights the large gains to be made on economic issues. Additionally, a Fox News poll taken in September 2012 found that only 6% of Hispanic voters would make their election decision based on immigration, while 48% of likely Hispanic voters stated that the economy was the main factor in their decision. The implication is quite clear – if you want to make inroads with Hispanic voters, it’s the economy stupid!
Consider the battleground states in the 2012 election: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Nevada. President Obama won them all due in large part to the Hispanic turnout – especially in Nevada, Florida, and Colorado where Hispanic voters make up 15% or more of the total voter turnout. In all of these states, except Ohio, unemployment was above the national average. In Ohio, where unemployment stood at 7%, Romney garnered 40% of the Hispanic vote.
Republicans are losing the battle in how their policies are defined. Exit polls in this election showed a clear perception among all voters that Mitt Romney, and by extension all Republicans, was just an out of touch rich guy, who just wanted to help the rich get richer, and had no interest in the average person. Polls showed 53% of respondents saying they viewed Mitt Romney in this fashion, and a mere 34% of respondents who thought Mitt Romney would be better for the middle class. This is not a new line of thinking, and this line of thinking carries over into Hispanic voters. The National Review reported earlier this year:
A March 2011 poll by Moore Information found that Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in California than Republican positions on illegal immigration. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic voters were suspicious of the Republican party on class-warfare grounds — “it favors only the rich”; “Republicans are selfish and out for themselves”; “Republicans don’t represent the average person”– compared with 7 percent who objected to Republican immigration stances.
If Republicans want to attract more Hispanic voters, they need to listen to what Hispanic voters say are their main concerns. Hispanics want to hear about the economy and jobs; they are concerned about healthcare, and income inequality. Republicans have sound, principle based ideas on all of these issues. If we want to make inroads with Hispanic voters, we should not abandon our principles in an effort to curry favor, rather it is more important than ever to stand on our principles and clearly make the argument for why our policies simply work better.
In the 2012 Presidential election, President Obama secured over 70% of the Hispanic vote, while the share of Hispanics that supported Mitt Romney and the Republican ticket fell to its lowest level in years. Over the last three Presidential elections, Hispanic support for Republicans has fallen from a high of 44% in 2004, to the 27% that Mitt Romney was able to obtain. Clearly, the Republican Party is losing the argument with Hispanic voters, but why?
There are elements within the Republican Party that argue this is all about immigration. They argue that if only Republicans would tone down the rhetoric and support the inevitable immigration reform, be it amnesty, a pathway to citizenship, or the generic “comprehensive immigration reform”, then we would easily garner Hispanic support. While it is true that Republicans should tone down divisive rhetoric, be it on immigration, abortion, or the use of force, the idea that the pathway to attract Hispanics to the Republican Party rests with the immigration issue is misguided.
First, Republicans should not simply abandon a principled policy in an effort to possibly curry favor with a certain demographic down the road. If our principles mean anything, we can stand on them and win. A Pew Research study conducted in April 2012 found that when asked whether we should have stricter controls and more restrictions on people coming into this country to live, 86% of Republicans agreed, 58% of Democrats agreed, and 70% of Independents agreed. Republicans do not have to do an about face on the immigration question and support amnesty, or an open border policy to win on this issue. If the above poll is any indication, people across the political spectrum would oppose blanket amnesty and open borders, and instead Republicans can use the issue to talk about serious ideas for reform, like a more inclusive guest worker program, more legal immigration, and backing successful state based approaches to immigration challenges.
This said, why is a Republican focus on immigration to court the Hispanic vote misguided? Simple – in poll after poll from this election, Hispanic voters told us they were not focused on immigration. A Gallup poll from June 2012 asked Hispanic voters to rank their most important issues. At the top of the list with 21% was Healthcare, followed by Unemployment at 19%, Economic Growth at 17%, Income Inequality at 16%, leaving the last two major issues of Immigration and the Budget Deficit at 12% and 11% respectively. Gallup went on to say:
Obama leads Romney by 75 percentage points -- 86% to 11% -- among Hispanic voters whose top issue concern is the gap between the rich and poor. He leads by 50 or more points among those citing healthcare and immigration policies. And he leads by 25 or more points among those who cite unemployment and economic growth. Among only one group of Hispanics, those citing the federal budget deficit as most important, does Romney beat Obama, 54% to 34%.
To put this data another way, Romney was only able to win a majority of Hispanics on the issue that the fewest of them were concerned about. Further, it highlights the large gains to be made on economic issues. Additionally, a Fox News poll taken in September 2012 found that only 6% of Hispanic voters would make their election decision based on immigration, while 48% of likely Hispanic voters stated that the economy was the main factor in their decision. The implication is quite clear – if you want to make inroads with Hispanic voters, it’s the economy stupid!
Consider the battleground states in the 2012 election: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Nevada. President Obama won them all due in large part to the Hispanic turnout – especially in Nevada, Florida, and Colorado where Hispanic voters make up 15% or more of the total voter turnout. In all of these states, except Ohio, unemployment was above the national average. In Ohio, where unemployment stood at 7%, Romney garnered 40% of the Hispanic vote.
Republicans are losing the battle in how their policies are defined. Exit polls in this election showed a clear perception among all voters that Mitt Romney, and by extension all Republicans, was just an out of touch rich guy, who just wanted to help the rich get richer, and had no interest in the average person. Polls showed 53% of respondents saying they viewed Mitt Romney in this fashion, and a mere 34% of respondents who thought Mitt Romney would be better for the middle class. This is not a new line of thinking, and this line of thinking carries over into Hispanic voters. The National Review reported earlier this year:
A March 2011 poll by Moore Information found that Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in California than Republican positions on illegal immigration. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic voters were suspicious of the Republican party on class-warfare grounds — “it favors only the rich”; “Republicans are selfish and out for themselves”; “Republicans don’t represent the average person”– compared with 7 percent who objected to Republican immigration stances.
If Republicans want to attract more Hispanic voters, they need to listen to what Hispanic voters say are their main concerns. Hispanics want to hear about the economy and jobs; they are concerned about healthcare, and income inequality. Republicans have sound, principle based ideas on all of these issues. If we want to make inroads with Hispanic voters, we should not abandon our principles in an effort to curry favor, rather it is more important than ever to stand on our principles and clearly make the argument for why our policies simply work better.
